Prediction in Sociology: Prospects for a Devalued Activity

Abstract

The nineteenth-century founders of sociology were in no doubt that sociology is a predictive discipline. This was a key component of its constitution as a science, in contrast to religious mythology and metaphysics. Comte's formula ‘Savoir pour prévoir et prévoir pour pouvoir’ neatly captures the mood and mission of the sociological enterprise at its foundation. As the twentieth century closes, prediction has become almost a taboo word, connoting an embarrassing affiliation to vulgar positivism, scientism and technocracy. This article argues that many of our current fears about prediction are exaggerated or misplaced. If sociology is to regain its standing in the public domain we need to reclaim prediction as a core element in the sociological project.