The New Prometheans: Technological Optimism in Climate Change Mitigation Modelling

Abstract

Technological change modelling (TCM) is quietly transforming the landscape of environmental debate. It provides a powerful new basis for technological optimism, which has long been a key battleground. The technique is at the heart of mainstream climate change mitigation policies and greatly strengthens environmentalism over ecologism. It seems to show that technological change can solve the problem. I argue that the models employ a flawed understanding of technological change and that policies based on them are a major gamble. The article aims to begin a wider debate on TCM, offering a defence of ecolo-gism rooted in the history of technology and SCOT literatures.

Keywords

Technological optimism sustainable development ecologism social construction of technological change technological change modelling

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Baer

2009. ‘Equity in climate–economy scenarios: the importance of subnational income distribution’. Environmental Research Letters 4: 015007. CrossRef.

Barry

and Leonard

(eds). 2010. Global Ecological Politics. Bingley: Emerald.

Bennett

S.J.

2012. ‘Using past transitions to inform scenarios for the future of renewable raw materials in the UK’. Energy Policy 50: 95–108. CrossRef.

Benson

C.L.

and Magee

C.L.

. 2014. ‘On improvement rates for renewable energy technologies: Solar PV, wind turbines, capacitors, and batteries’. Renewable Energy 68: 745–751. CrossRef.

Bijker

W.E.

1987. ‘The social construction of bakelite: toward a theory of invention’. In Bijker

W.E.

, Hughes

T.P.

and Pinch

(eds), The Social Construction of Technological Systems, pp. 159–187. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Bijker

W.E.

, Hughes

T.P.

and Pinch

T.J.

. 1987. The Social Construction of Technological Systems. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Blühdorn

2007. ‘Sustaining the unsustainable: Symbolic politics and the politics of simulation’. Environmental Politics 16: 251–275. CrossRef.

Bouwman

A.F.

, Kram

and Goldewijk

K.K.

(eds). 2006. Integrated Modelling of Global Environmental Change. An Overview of IMAGE 2.4. Bilthoven, Netherlands: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP).

Brand

and Fischer

. 2013. ‘Overcoming the technophilia/technophobia split in environmental discourse’. Environmental Politics 22: 235–254. CrossRef.

10.

Brundtland

G.H.

1987. Our Common Future: The World Commission on Environment and Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

11.

Callon

1980. ‘The state and technical innovation: a case study of the electrical vehicle in France’. Research Policy 9: 358–376. CrossRef.

12.

CCTP, 2006. U.S. Climate Change Technology Program: Strategic Plan. Ft. Belvoir: Defense Technical Information Center,.

13.

Chakravorty

, Roumasset

and Tse

. 1997. ‘Endogenous substitution among energy resources and global warming’. Journal of Political Economy 105: 1201–1234.

14.

Clarke

, Wise

, Edmonds

, Placet

. 2008. CO₂ Emissions Mitigation and Technological Advance: An Updated Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios. PNNL-18075: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

15.

Crassous

, Hourcade

and Sassi

. 2006. ‘Endogenous structural change and climate targets modeling experiments with Imaclim-R’. The Energy Journal 27: 161–178. CrossRef.

16.

Daly

H.E.

2014. Beyond Growth: The Economics of Sustainable Development. Boston: Beacon Press.

17.

David

P.A.

1992. ‘Heroes, Herds and Hysteresis in Technological History: Thomas Edison and “The Battle of the Systems” Reconsidered’. Industrial and Corporate Change 1: 129–180.

18.

Dobson

2007. Green Political Thought. Oxford: Routledge.

19.

Dryzek

J.S.

2012. The Politics of the Earth: Environmental Discourses. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

20.

Edmonds

, Calvin

, Clarke

, Kyle

and Wise

. 2012. ‘Energy and technology lessons since Rio’. Energy Economics 34: S7–S14. CrossRef.

21.

Elgert

2013. ‘Hard facts and software: The co-production of indicators in a land-use planning model’. Environmental Values 22: 765–786.

22.

European Commission. 2003. World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook 2030 (WETO). Luxembourg: EUR-OP.

23.

European Commission. 2010. The European Strategic Energy Technology Plan SET-Plan: Towards a Low-Carbon Future. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.

24.

Fournier

2008. ‘Escaping from the economy: the politics of degrowth’. International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy 28: 528–545. CrossRef.

25.

Garb

, Pulver

and VanDeveer

S.D.

. 2008. ‘Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling’. Environmental Research Letters 3: 045015. CrossRef.

26.

Geels

F.W.

2004. ‘From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems’. Research Policy 33: 897–920. CrossRef.

27.

Grubb

, Edmonds

, Brink

and Morrison

. 1993. ‘The costs of limiting fossil-fuel CO2 emissions: A survey and analysis’. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 18: 397–478. CrossRef.

28.

Grübler

, Nakićenović

and Victor

D.G.

. 1999a. ‘Dynamics of energy technologies and global change’. Energy Policy 27: 247–280. CrossRef.

29.

Grübler

, Nakićenović

and Victor

D.G.

. 1999b. ‘Modelling technological change: Implications for the global environment’. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 24: 545–569. CrossRef.

30.

Höök

, Li

, Johansson

and Snowden

. 2011. ‘Growth Rates of Global Energy Systems and Future Outlooks’. Natural Resources Research 21: 23–41. CrossRef.

31.

Hughes

T.P.

2004. American Genesis: A Century of Invention and Technological Enthusiasm, 1870–1970. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

32.

Illge

and Schwarze

. 2009. ‘A matter of opinion – How ecological and neoclassical environmental economists and think about sustainability and economics’. Ecological Economics 68: 594–604. CrossRef.

33.

Jaffe

A.B.

, Newell

R.G.

and Stavins

R.N.

. 2002. ‘Environmental Policy and Technological Change’. Environmental and Resource Economics 22: 41–69. CrossRef.

34.

Kallis

2011. ‘In defence of degrowth’. Ecological Economics 70: 873–880. CrossRef.

35.

Kaufmann

R.K.

2004. ‘The mechanisms for autonomous energy efficiency increases: A cointegration analysis of the US energy/GDP ratio’. The Energy Journal 25: 63–86. CrossRef.

36.

Luly

E.L.

and Mitchell

J.F.R.

. 1943. ‘The modern power station’. Journal of the Royal Society of Arts 91: 545–562.

37.

MacKenzie

D.A.

, 1987. ‘Missile accuracy: a case study in the social processes of technological change’. In Bijker

W.E.

, Hughes

T.P.

and Pinch

(eds), The Social Construction of Technological Systems, pp. 195–222. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

38.

Manne

A.S.

and Richels

R.G.

. 1992. Global CO₂ Emission Reductions: The Impacts of Rising Energy Costs. Netherlands: Springer.

39.

Mayer

, Kreyenberg

, Wind

and Braun

. 2012. ‘Feasibility study of 2020 target costs for PEM fuel cells and lithium-ion batteries: A two-factor experience curve approach’. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 37: 14463–14474. CrossRef.

40.

Metz

, Davidson

, Bosch

, Dave

, Meyer

(eds). 2007. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.

41.

Miles

R.W.

, Hynes

K.M.

and Forbes

. 2005. ‘Photovoltaic solar cells: An overview of state-of-the-art cell development and environmental issues’. Progress in Crystal Growth and Characterization of Materials 51: 1–42. CrossRef.

42.

Mokyr

, 1990. The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

43.

Mol

and Spaargaren

. 2000. ‘Ecological modernisation theory in debate: A review’. Environmental Politics 9: 17–49.

44.

Moss

R.H.

, Edmonds

J.A.

, Hibbard

K.A.

, Manning

M.R.

. 2010. ‘The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment’. Nature 463: 747–56. CrossRef.

45.

Nakicenovic

, Alcamo

and Davis

. 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES): Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

46.

Nordhaus

2009. The Perils of the Learning Model for Modeling Endogeneous Technological Change. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research.

47.

Nordhaus

W.D.

1993. ‘Rolling the dice: an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases’. Resource and Energy Economics 15: 27–50. CrossRef.

48.

Nusbaumer

and Matsumoto

. 2008. ‘Climate and carbon cycle changes under the overshoot scenario’. Global and Planetary Change 62: 164–172. CrossRef.

49.

Padilla

2004. ‘Climate change, economic analysis and sustainable development’. Environmental Values 13: 523–544.

50.

Parson

, Burkett

, Fisher-Vanden

, Keith

. 2007. Global-change Scenarios: Their Development and Use. U.S. Department of Energy Publications: US Climate Change Science Program.

51.

Perlin

1999. From Space to Earth: The Story of Solar Electricity. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

52.

Pielke

, Wigley

and Green

. 2008. ‘Dangerous assumptions’. Nature, 452: 531–532. CrossRef.

53.

Pizer

and Popp

. 2008. ‘Endogenizing technological change: Matching empirical evidence to modeling needs’. Energy Economics 30: 2754–2770. CrossRef.

54.

Pulver

and VanDeveer

S.D.

. 2009. “‘Thinking about tomorrows”: Scenarios, global environmental politics, and social science scholarship’. Global Environmental Politics 9: 1–13. CrossRef.

55.

Rao

, Riahi

, Stehfest

and van Vuuren

D.P.

. 2008. Interim Report: IMAGE and MESSAGE Scenarios Limiting GHG Concentration to Low Levels. Laxenbourg: IIASA.

56.

Romer

P.M.

1990. ‘Endogenous technological change’. Journal of Political Economy 98: 71–78. CrossRef.

57.

Rosenberg

1996. ‘Uncertainty and technological change’. In Landau

, Taylor

and Wright

(eds), The Mosaic of Economic Growth. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

58.

Schenk

N.J.

and Lensink

S.M.

. 2007. ‘Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC's greenhouse gas emissions scenarios’. Climatic Change 82: 293–308. CrossRef.

59.

Schiermeier

2008. ‘Are the IPCC scenarios “unachievable”?’. Nature 452: 508–509. CrossRef.

60.

Schneider

, Kallis

and Martinez-Alier

. 2010. ‘Crisis or opportunity? Economic degrowth for social equity and ecological sustainability. Introduction to this special issue’. Journal of Cleaner Production 18: 511–518. CrossRef.

61.

Sherry

1984. ‘The power game: The development of conventional power stations 1948–1983’. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part A: Journal of Power and Energy 198: 257–280. CrossRef.

62.

Sood

, James

G.M.

, Tellis

G.J.

and Zhu

. 2012. ‘Predicting the path of technological innovation: SAW versus Moore, Bass, Gompertz, and Kryder’. Marketing Science 31: 964–979. CrossRef.

63.

Spanggaard

and Krebs

F.C.

. 2004. ‘A brief history of the development of organic and polymeric photovoltaics’. Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells 83: 125–146. CrossRef.

64.

Victor

2011. Global Warming Gridlock : Creating More Effective Strategies for Protecting the Planet. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. CrossRef.

65.

De Vries

B.J.M.

, van Vuuren

D.P.

, den Elzen

M.J.G.

and Janssen

M.A.

. 2001. The Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model: Technical Documentation. National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM).

66.

van Vuuren

D.P.

, Stehfest

, Elzen

M.G.J.

, Kram

, . 2011. ‘RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C’. Climatic Change 109: 95–116. CrossRef.

67.

van Vuuren

D.P.

, van Ruijven

, Hoogwijk

M.M.

, Isaac

and Vries

H.J.M De

. 2006. ‘TIMER 2: Model description and application’. In Bouwman

A.F.

, Kram

and Goldewijk

K.K.

(eds), Integrated Modelling of Global Environmental Change. An Overview of IMAGE 2.4, pp. 39–60, Bilthoven, The Netherlands: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP).

68.

van Vuuren

D.P.

, Stehfest

, Elzen

M.G.J.

, van Vliet

and Isaac

. 2010. ‘Exploring IMAGE model scenarios that keep greenhouse gas radiative forcing below 3W/m2 in 2100’. Energy Economics 32: 1105–1120. CrossRef.

69.

van Vuuren

D.P.

, de Vries

, Beusen

and Heuberger

P.S.C.

. 2008. ‘Conditional probabilistic estimates of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios’. Global Environmental Change 18: 635–654. CrossRef.

70.

van Vuuren

D.P.

, de Vries

, Eickhout

and Kram

. 2004. ‘Responses to technology and taxes in a simulated world’. Energy Economics 26: 579–601. CrossRef.

71.

van Vuuren

D.P.

and de Vries

H.J.M.

. 2000. Mitigation Scenarios in a World Orientated at Sustainable Development: the Role of Technology, Efficiency and Timing. Bilthoven, The Netherlands: National Institute of Public Health and the Environment.

72.

Weger

, Lawrence

and Butler

. 2012. Report on CH4 in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Potsdam: IASS.

73.

Weyant

J.P.

and Olavson

. 1999. ‘Issues in modeling induced technological change in energy, environmental, and climate policy’. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 4: 67–85. CrossRef.

74.

Williams

and Edge

. 1996. ‘The social shaping of technology’. Research Policy 25: 865–899. CrossRef.