Abstract
A newly declassified Cold War nuclear war study shows just how frightening the “day after” could have been for Americans.
Dangerous doses
The study assigned each U.S. county a risk level according to potential one-week unprotected radiation doses.
By the mid-1980s, the Soviet Union had significantly improved the accuracy of its nuclear weapons, allowing it to target U.S. assets with hundreds, if not thousands, of lower yield weapons. Taking Soviet capabilities and strategy into account, in 1986 the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) laid out its best guess as to which areas of the country were at greatest risk in the event of a full-scale nuclear war.
Recently declassified, the study–known as the Nuclear Attack Planning Base-1990–was supposed to help local authorities bolster their emergency response plans. Nearly 20 years later, the document serves as a vivid reminder of the widespread perils of nuclear war.
The FEMA planners predicted that the Soviets would give highest priority to destroying missile silos, launch control centers, and other military facilities. Government infrastructure, industrial centers, and transportation hubs were also assumed to be on the Soviet target list, but the weapons used to defeat hardened military targets would be likely to spread the most radiation.
Using the “most probable” wind patterns to determine potential fallout distributions, FEMA planners assigned a risk level–very high, high, medium, or low–for potential radiation exposure in each county (see map).
The results were staggering. “None of the continental U.S. land area can be considered categorically secure from [the fallout] risk,” the report said. Even survivors in counties with the least exposure would still have been in serious danger: “If the fallout levels that characterize a Low Fallout Risk area should occur, debilitating illness and possible death are certain for resident populations without adequate shelter.”
Given the likely damage that nuclear attack would cause (from direct effects like blast and fire as well as radiation exposure), local civil defense authorities were left with few options for protecting citizens. Ronald F. Treichel, who directed the study, summed it up in a brief comment to the press: “You can either dig or get out of the way.”
Fallout exposure
