Several methods have been proposed to derive ideal predictions of connectionist models. In contrast, there have been few attempts to explore fluctuations of the predictions around the ideal value in probabilistic environment. This void must be filled. Thus, Monte-Carlo simulations with the Rescorla-Wagner model were conducted for an experimental paradigm called relative validity. Simulations indicated that fluctuation is too sizeable to neglect and that it can even lead to qualitatively different predictions. The final associative strength was influenced by the last several trials.
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