Abstract
All the necessary prior probabilities for making a Bayesian estimation of the posterior probability were provided to subjects along with a cover story. The prior probabilities, but not the cover story, were non-systematically varied to provide 12 situations. Bayesian solutions of these probability problems indicated p values ranging from .4 to .9; but subjects estimated a p value around .7 across all conditions. For all conditions except one, the mode estimate was identical to one of the prior probabilities. High degree of similarity found among the dominating prior probability, the median and modal estimates of posterior probability within a condition seems to indicate the existence of specific information effect in probability estimation.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.