Technique for Prediction of Outcome of Election of National Leaders

Abstract

A technique is presented for evaluating the degree of support a candidate for national public office is likely to have at the polls. The technique involves the use of an adjective check list, Activity Vector Analysis (AVA), for which forms are available in French, Spanish, German, and Italian. Data are presented and discussed relative to a study made by the authors using this technique of public-image analysis just prior to the 1964 presidential elections in the United States. The data are based on the personality profiles of Johnson and Goldwater obtained from the public images held of these two candidates by 672 adults drawn from a population of voters representing a wide geographical distribution in the United States. From comparisons of the Ss' perceptions of Johnson and Goldwater and of the public image of each with an “ideal” President's profile established in an earlier study, no wide discrepancies were found between the public perceptions of the two major Presidential candidates in the 1964 elections in the U.S. However, the broad implications of the study are that, in forecasting the outcomes of the presidential elections, public-image analysis is likely to be confounded by the phenomenon of selective perception as it is related to party affiliation. The technique has promise as a possible method for evaluating the relative appeal of candidates for public office.