The Political Participation Puzzle and Marketing

Abstract

This study shows that one of the most intriguing findings on political participation—that the participation rate is higher in close elections—is due to the omission of variables, namely, the marketing activities. This relationship between closeness and participation is intriguing because (1) it implies that people participate in elections because their vote might be decisive, but (2) such an incentive to vote is unreasonable. This study presents a theoretical model that suggests that closeness does not affect the turnout rate directly but rather through the marketing activities of the parties. In other words, in equilibrium, close elections attract higher marketing spending, which in turn increases turnout. The author uses data on the 1996–2004 presidential elections in the United States to examine the model and its implications. Using structural (and nonstructural) estimation, the author finds that the data support the model and its implications. Furthermore, the effect of marketing on turnout is dramatic. For example, if the marketing activity were canceled in the 2004 elections, the number of voters would have decreased by 15 million.