From Uncertain Intentions to Actual Behavior: A Threshold Model of Whether and When Salespeople Quit

Abstract

In this article, the authors focus on the formation of intentions to quit among salespeople and the link between these intentions and subsequent quitting behavior. Building on the foundations of the recently developed judgment uncertainty and magnitude parameters (JUMP) model, which statistically and simultaneously separates the drivers of judgment magnitude from those of judgment uncertainty, the authors present a model of the formation of uncertain intentions that decomposes a stated intention into a magnitude and an uncertainty dimension. The authors then develop hypotheses regarding the impact of affective and continuance commitment and critical sales events on intention magnitude and the effect of critical sales events and role stress on intention uncertainty. Subsequently, the authors develop a threshold model of the intention-behavior link that articulates a psychological mechanism within which uncertainty-laden intentions translate into actual behavior. Empirically, results from sales force intention and turnover data provide strong support for the theorizing. In addition to identifying some drivers of intention-to-quit magnitude and uncertainty, the authors identify the crucial role of intention uncertainty in shaping both the probability and timing of subsequent behavior. Consistent with the psychological underpinnings of the threshold model, the authors find that intention uncertainty lowers the probability of intended behavior. The results regarding the timing of quitting support an uncertainty avoidance conjecture: Given a stated intention, likely quitters with greater intention uncertainty quit faster than those with lower intention uncertainty.