Evaluation of significant transitions in the influencing factors of human reliability

Abstract

This paper describes sensitivity analysis of a previously developed model for the estimation of the probability of human erroneous actions in specific industrial and working contexts. The model has been built using the fuzzy logic theory. The fuzzy model developed includes nine input parameters according to the CREAM (cognitive reliability and error analysis method) methodology. The model has been used in order to detect the critical transitions in the optimization of human reliability, for corresponding changes in each of the nine input parameters. Changes in the working context have been evaluated through their relevant reduction to the action failure probability of the human operator. The results of the fuzzy model, after the defuzzification process, are human error probabilities in the form of crisp numbers, which can eventually be used in probabilistic assessments and cost—benefit analyses in order to compare the parameters’ adjustment cost with the impact this adjustment has on the performance and reliability of the human operator.