Many contemporary reference works that address learning-curve theory incorrectly apply the basic equation established by Dr. T.P. Wright in 1936 incorrectly. The result is that estimates based on these texts overstate project time requirements by as much as 30%! By means of a worked example using recent data, this paper redevelops the theory from first principles. Interested readers may use the step-by-step method described within to establish the correct rate of learning applicable to their own organizations, thereby improving their productivity.
WertmanLouis (1963). Manufacturing-time forecasting curves. In WilsonFrank W. (ed.), Manufacturing Planning and Estimating Handbook.McGraw-Hill Book Company.
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WrightT.P. (1943, November). Index of airplane production efficiency (Aircraft Resources Control Office Report, No. 17A). Washington, DC: Aircraft Production Board.
