Development of an Emergency Revisit Score for Patients With Drug-Related Problems

Abstract

Background: Drug-related problems (DRPs) are a frequent reason for emergency departments (EDs) visits. However, data about the risk factors associated with EDs revisits are limited. Objective: To develop and validate a predictive model indicating the risk factors associated with EDs revisit within 30 days of the first visit. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted involving patients who attended an ED for DRPs related to cardiovascular drugs. A 30-day prediction model was created in a derivation cohort by logistic regression. An integer score proportional to the regression coefficient was assigned to the variables with P < .100 in the multivariate analysis. Results: 581 patients (mean age: 80.0 [12.6] years) were included, 133 (22.9%) revisited the ED within 30 days from discharge. Six factors (chronic kidney disease, chronic heart failure, visit to an ED in the preceding 3 months, high anticholinergic burden, DRPs associated with heparin, and safety-related DRPs) were identified as risk factors and combined into a final score, termed the DREAMER score. The model reached an area under the receiver operating curve values of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.67-0.77) in the referral cohort and 0.71 (95% CI = 0.65-0.74) in the validation cohort (P = .273). Three risk categories were generated, with the following scores and estimated risks: low risk (0-8 points): 11.6%; intermediate risk (9-14 points): 21.3%; and high risk (>14 points): 41.2%. Conclusion and Relevance: The DREAMER score identifies patients at high risk for ED revisit within 30 days from the first visit for a DRPs, being a useful tool to prioritize interventions on discharge.