The Conflict Sensitivity Wheel: A framework and tool to evaluate climate adaptation policies

Abstract

Climate adaptation policies often intersect with conflict dynamics, demanding approaches that promote resilience while minimizing unintended consequences. However, assessments of conflict sensitivity in adaptation have focused on narrow, project-based analysis, failing to capture multilevel governance arrangements where policy instruments operate. Addressing this gap, this article introduces the Conflict Sensitivity Wheel, a novel framework and tool for evaluating climate adaptation policy instruments through the lens of conflict sensitivity. Grounded in the governance theories of polycentrism, adaptive governance, and political ecology, the Wheel provides a structured approach for analysing how adaptation instruments address the socio-political complexities of conflict-prone contexts. The tool operationalizes these theories through 22 governance criteria and 49 indicators, systematically categorized across the policy cycle. The study develops a protocol guiding the tool’s application, and tests it on Kenya’s County Climate Change Fund, demonstrating its ability to diagnose strengths and limitations for conflict sensitivity. The application highlights the Conflict Sensitivity Wheel’s versatility and potential for guiding adaptation governance toward more conflict-sensitive approaches. Future research could explore its application across diverse geographies and policy contexts, further refining its utility as an instrument for advancing conflict-sensitive climate action.