The Asian Century: Plausible but not Preordained

Abstract

Asia's economic growth in the past several decades has been stellar. Asia today accounts for over a quarter of the global GDP and three of the five largest economies in the world are in Asia. This share is growing and by some accounts could well account for over half the global output by 2050. Some have dubbed the twenty-first century as the Asian Century. Hundreds of millions have been lifted out of poverty. Asians today are richer, healthier, more educated, and live longer than they did a generation back. However, the region also faces many severe development challenges. Continuing poverty (two thirds of the world's poor still live in Asia), rising inequality, social deprivations, environmental degradation, gender biases, food, energy and water security, poor physical and social infrastructure, limited reach of the formal financial sector, poor governance and weak institutions are among such pressing challenges. If these challenges go unmet, could Asia get caught in a ‘middle income’ trap thus rendering the dream of an ‘Asian Century’ just that: a dream. This article examines the phenomenon of ‘Two Faces of Asia’. It analyzes the challenges that Asia must confront, the opportunities that it must exploit and concludes that an Asian Century characterized by Asian prominence in a globalized world is ‘plausible but not pre-ordained’.The article also argues that the Asian Century should not be cast in a narrow, parochial sense as ‘Asia's Century’. Rather, it offers the promise of a century of shared global prosperity in which Asians take their rightful place among the ranks of the affluent—on par with those in Europe today.