Negative Views of Falling Birth Rates in the United States Come Mostly from the Right Wing

Abstract

Concern over falling birth rates and the pronatalist movement in the United States and elsewhere are growing as fertility rates decline and societies grow older. Analyzing data from a 2024 Pew Research Center poll, this visualization describes the views of U.S. survey respondents on the issue of declining birth rates, with about half (49 percent) of respondents expressing a negative view of the trend. Those most likely to offer this view are politically conservative, attend religious services more often, and are more likely older, male, married, and more highly educated. Second, they are more likely to view climate change, racism, and gun violence as not serious problems and to view illegal immigration and the state of moral values in the country as serious problems. Thus, the negative perception of falling birth rates is generally associated with right-leaning concerns and identities in the United States (with the exception of education).

Fertility rates are falling around the world, leading to top-heavy age structures and eventually, if the trends persist, declining population size, especially without immigration (Skirbekk 2022). Many demographers argue that fears of population decline are exaggerated and have negative consequences of their own, including regressive social policies toward women and families (e.g., Folbre 2025; Gietel-Basten 2023; Guzzo, Root, and Clark 2025). In the United States, White nationalists and Christian nationalists use the idea of a fertility crisis among the dominant group to promote racial supremacy and elevate patriarchal family forms (Brady 2025; Perry and Grubbs 2025). Authoritarian and White supremacist leaders in many countries use birth rate decline to motivate fear of racial integration and immigration and against abortion rights (Forati and Bartz 2025; Weinberg 2022).

In the United States, social conservatives have higher birth rates than liberals, which contributes to growing political polarization in the country (Vogl and Freese 2020). In the 2024 election campaign, Donald Trump (C-SPAN 2024) declared, “I want a new baby boom!” A viral comment by vice presidential candidate J. D. Vance mocked the Democratic base of “childless cat ladies” (Bellafante 2024), and in his first speech as vice president, Vance declared, “I want more babies in the United States of America!” (Columbus Dispatch 2025). However, some pronatalists support more liberal social policies and disavow the right-wing politics associated with the issue (e.g., Spears and Geruso 2025).

This visualization (Figure 1) uses an item from the Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel in May 2024 to address the question “Who cares about falling birth rates?” The question Pew asked was, “What type of impact do you think it would have on our country if fewer people chose to have children in the future?” The response options ranged 1 (“very positive”) to 5 (“very negative”) (Hurst 2024). After listwise deletion of 5.6 percent of the sample for missing values, the remaining sample size is 8,152. Results are weighted with Pew’s population weight.

Figure 1.

Proportion who chose “very negative” and “somewhat negative” when asked, “What type of impact do you think it would have on our country if fewer people chose to have children in the future?” (A) Proportion with negative responses by political ideology, religious attendance, age, gender and partnered status, and education. (B) Association with five potential social problems, from “a very big problem” to “not a problem at all.” Red lines highlight the overall mean (.49), and 95 percent confidence intervals are shown. All results are weighted. Data are from the Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel, wave 148 (May 13–19, 2024).

To create Figure 1, I first show the associations of a set of covariates with negative responses to the question, which constitute 49 percent of all responses (combining “very negative” and “somewhat negative”). These include age, gender and partnered status (married or cohabiting), education, political ideology, religious attendance (“often” = more than once per week, “sometimes” = once per week to once per month, “rarely” = seldom or a few times a year, and “never.”). Fewer than 1 percent of respondents specified a gender other than man or woman (not shown). Next, I analyzed how attitudes toward 16 potential social problems were associated with the same outcome, and the five strongest associations are shown: climate change, racism, gun violence, illegal immigration, and “the state of moral values in the country.”

Figure 1, produced using Stata 19, shows that people who are more conservative, attend religious services more often, are older, are male or married, or have higher education all were more likely to provide a negative answer. Figure 1B shows that people who think that climate change, racism, and gun violence are not serious problems are more likely to be concerned about falling birth rates, as are those who are more concerned about illegal immigration and the state of moral values in the country.

To make sure that results were not driven by simple demographic differences, I repeated the analysis in Figure 1A using multivariate linear probability models, with controls for race/ethnicity and family income, in addition to all variables shown. The results were substantively unchanged. Complete figures and alternative specifications are in the supplemental material, as is the Stata code and link to the data.

In summary, this visualization is consistent with the notion that concern over falling birth rates in the United States is concentrated on the social and political right (including those who do not think racism is a serious problem). Education shows a different pattern, as more highly educated people, usually more liberal, are more concerned about falling birth rates (although the association is weaker). As falling birth rates and pronatalism increase in salience, it remains to be seen whether this issue will more substantially cross political lines, or if it will remain the province of the political right.

Supplemental Material

sj-pdf-1-srd-10.1177_23780231251386491 – Supplemental material for Negative Views of Falling Birth Rates in the United States Come Mostly from the Right Wing

Supplemental material, sj-pdf-1-srd-10.1177_23780231251386491 for Negative Views of Falling Birth Rates in the United States Come Mostly from the Right Wing by Philip N. Cohen in Socius