Neighborhood Poverty by Nativity in the Top 100 Metropolitan Areas (1970–2020)

Abstract

This visualization examines neighborhood poverty distributions for foreign-born and U.S.-born populations in the United States from 1970 to 2020. Although prior studies have often relied on binary thresholds such as 40 percent to define “high poverty” census tracts, the author highlights how immigrant-native inequality manifests across the full spectrum of tract poverty rates. In doing so, the author illuminates that inequality is most pronounced in tracts with poverty rates between 10 percent and 40 percent, where immigrants are overrepresented. However, inequality has decreased in recent decades as both groups have seen their distributions flatten. These temporal patterns may reflect demographic shifts in the composition of immigrants, as well as broader shifts in the spatial distribution of poverty. By visualizing the complete distribution of tract poverty rates, the author challenges conventional approaches to measuring neighborhood inequality and provides a richer understanding of residential contexts and immigrant incorporation.

Neighborhood contexts have long been a key lens through which researchers examine immigrant incorporation and immigrant-native inequality (Alba and Nee 2003; Kasinitz et al. 2008; Portes and Zhou 1993). Naturally, poverty rates are a prominent measure to assess this (Farrell and Firebaugh 2016; Jargowsky 2009). Concentrated poverty has been shown to affect individuals’ long-term life outcomes, with large effects on health and socioeconomic status (Massey, Gross, and Shibuya 1994; Sampson 2012; Wilson 1987). However, it is less clear how to measure concentrated poverty. Prior studies have typically used categorical thresholds of “high poverty,” such as census tracts with poverty rates above 40 percent (Jargowsky 2009; Massey et al. 1994). This approach succeeds in creating a benchmark that can be compared against over time, but risks missing important nuances in the full distribution of neighborhood contexts.

In this data visualization, I disaggregate tract poverty rates for foreign-born and U.S.-born populations, capturing changes in their distributions over time and revealing where inequalities are most pronounced. To assess research on concentrated metropolitan poverty, I have restricted my analysis to the top 100 metropolitan areas by population in 2022. I have also taken a few approaches, detailed in the supplemental file, to ensure geographic comparability across waves. Each panel of Figure 1 shows the percentage of the population in each group living in tracts with different levels of poverty. A few stylized facts emerge from this visualization.

Figure 1.

Distribution of the U.S.-born versus foreign-born population in the top 100 core-based statistical areas by census-tract poverty rate over time.

First, a 40 percent poverty rate threshold does little to illuminate group differences in neighborhood contexts. Very few people live in these census tracts, and as a result, looking at their percentage increase decade on decade is subject to noise and overinterpretation. Instead, the inequality between foreign-born and U.S.-born populations is most pronounced in the middle of the spectrum. Immigrants are overrepresented in tracts with poverty rates ranging from approximately 10 percent to 40 percent.

Second, inequality in neighborhood concentrated poverty appears to have risen in the 1990s and 2000s and then fallen again in recent decades. It is intuitive that inequality increased from the 1970s, as the composition of the immigrant population shifted away from Europe. Immigrants entering the United States after the passage of the 1965 Hart-Celler Act are likely to face higher barriers to incorporation than previous waves (Alba and Nee 2003; Gans 1992; Portes and Zhou 1993). However, it remains less clear what is driving more recent declines in inequality.

Third, the distribution of both groups has flattened over time. For example, in 1970, more than 10 percent of the U.S.-born population lived in census tracts with poverty rates between 4 percent and 5 percent. Given that each histogram bin represents only a 1 percentage point spread, these distributions are highly concentrated. This flattening occurred for both groups, so it is unlikely to represent an aspect of immigrant-native inequality. Rather, the spatial concentration and distribution of poverty appears to have broadly shifted over the time period. Shifts in survey methodology from the decennial census to the American Community Survey may also contribute to this flattening in recent waves. Although using the decennial census is preferrable, information on nativity is no longer available after 2000.

By capturing the full distribution of tract poverty rates, I allow us to observe these trends that are otherwise masked. This visualization illustrates how inequality manifests across a wide range of neighborhood contexts. I invite further exploration of how demographic and spatial shifts shape immigrant-native disparities, not just at the extremes of poverty but across the middle of the spectrum, where most residential incorporation occurs.

Supplemental Material

sj-docx-1-srd-10.1177_23780231251322362 – Supplemental material for Neighborhood Poverty by Nativity in the Top 100 Metropolitan Areas (1970–2020)

Supplemental material, sj-docx-1-srd-10.1177_23780231251322362 for Neighborhood Poverty by Nativity in the Top 100 Metropolitan Areas (1970–2020) by Aaron Berman Fernandez in Socius