Russia’s war in Ukraine: From geopolitics to geo-economics of deterrence

Abstract

Russia’s war in Ukraine has significantly impacted the global political, defence and economic context. The war has been characterised by the revival of nuclear deterrence as a powerful bargaining force for nuclear countries. This research paper examines the uncertainty surrounding Russia’s operations in Ukraine by discussing and reviewing the nuclear threats that emerged during the initial phases of the war and their implications. The well-known Geopolitical Risk and the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes are integrated into the study to facilitate data analytics and econometric modelling, as they reveal increasing levels of global uncertainty, conflict, and instability resulting from the war, with severe regional and international connotations. Overall, the research findings offer evidence of a significant correlation between political, military, and economic deterrence, which are critical elements to consider in situations of conflict arising from frictions in the global balance of power.