Predictors of illiberalism in Romania: A case study during the Russian invasion in Ukraine

Abstract

Illiberalism emphasizes traditional values and national sovereignty over liberal democratic ideals, which can lead to the erosion of democratic norms and institutions. Against this background, the paper investigates the relationship between illiberalism and various political and social factors in Romania, taking into account a particular context (the Russian invasion in Ukraine). Romania has experienced a rise in illiberal attitudes and the spread of populist and nationalist rhetoric, which is particularly concerning given its strategic location as a member of the European Union and NATO, and its proximity to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This study aims to investigate the associations between various attitudes, news consumption habits, and perceived exposure to misinformation, and how these factors relate to levels of illiberalism in Romanian society. Given the increasing prominence of illiberal and populist ideologies globally, a nuanced understanding of these relationships is critical. The study employs a quantitative approach, leveraging an online survey to collect data from a sample of 1000 Romanian citizens. Soft quotas were used to ensure a diverse representation across age, gender, and education levels. Data collection was carried out by Dynata, a globally recognized market research firm, between March 1–9, 2022. Our analysis, informed by multiple regression models, uncovers complex relationships between trust in institutions, attitudes towards Russia and Ukraine, news consumption habits, perceived misinformation, and demographic factors in shaping illiberal perspectives. By providing a comprehensive understanding of the contributing factors, this study aims to inform public discourse and policy-making processes on how to address illiberal tendencies in society.