This study investigates the threshold effects of human capital and an ageing population on the housing demand in China using a balanced panel data set of 31 provinces from 2002 to 2021. Unlike previous studies focusing on the linear impact, this study uncovers significant non-linear dynamics in how demographic factors influence housing demand. In alignment with conventional economic theories, we find a negative relationship between housing prices and demand, while income, urbanization and financial development positively influence housing demand. However, a counter-intuitive pattern emerges, where human capital is negatively related to housing demand, and this impact becomes more pronounced when the human capital surpasses its threshold. Additionally, the ageing population exhibits a positive relationship with housing demand, which strengthens when the human capital exceeds its threshold. These findings contribute to the literature by revealing a non-linear human capital–housing demand nexus and offer nuanced insights into demographic transitions, which provide practical implications for urban planners and policymakers seeking to align housing supply with shifting socio-demographic dynamics.
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