Expectations that one may eventually divorce may predict behavior in young adulthood and beyond, but studies that have looked at individuals’ assessments of their divorce likelihood have been limited. Guided by the expectancy-value theory of achievement motivation, we tested five categories of potential predictors of divorce expectations in a sample of 1,610 unmarried young adults from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition to Adulthood Study. Predictors were tested separately by gender and partnership status. Results suggested that some predictors mattered more for some groups than others, such as employment for single men or certainty of marriage for partnered women. Consistent with prior research, caregiver divorce was significantly associated with expectations to divorce but was only one of many factors found to predict these expectations. Socioeconomic factors and experiences and expectations of other relationships consistently predicted expectations. Expectations to divorce are multifaceted and complex.
AmatoP. R.DeBoerD. D. (2001). The transmission of marital instability across generations: Relationship skills or commitment to marriage?Journal of Marriage and Family, 63, 1038–1051. doi:10.1111/j.1741-3737.2001.01038.x
2.
AmatoP. R.RogersS. J. (1999). Do attitudes toward divorce affect marital quality?Journal of Family Issues, 20, 69–86. doi:10.1177/019251399020001004
3.
ArnettJ. J. (2000). Emerging adulthood: A theory of development from the late teens through the twenties. American Psychologist, 55, 469–480. doi:10.1037/0003-066X.55.5.469
4.
ArochoR.Kamp DushC. M. (2016). Anticipating the “ball and chain”? Reciprocal associations between marital expectations and delinquency. Journal of Marriage and Family, 78, 1371–1381. doi:10.1111/jomf.12328
5.
ArochoR.Kamp DushC. M. (2017). Like mother, like child: Offspring marital timing desires and maternal marriage timing and stability. Journal of Family Psychology, 31, 261–272. doi:10.1037/fam0000218
6.
BakerL. A.EmeryR. E. (1993). When every relationship is above average: Perceptions and expectations of divorce at the time of marriage. Law and Human Behavior, 17, 439.
7.
BlackL. E.SprenkleD. H. (1991). Gender differences in college students’ attitudes towards divorce and their willingness to marry. Journal of Divorce & Remarriage, 14, 47–60. doi:10.1300/J087v14n03_04
8.
Boyer-PenningtonM. E.PenningtonJ.SpinkC. (2001). Students’ expectations and optimism toward marriage as a function of parental divorce. Journal of Divorce & Remarriage, 34, 71.
9.
CampbellK.WrightD. W.FloresC. G. (2012). Newlywed women’s marital expectations: Lifelong monogamy?Journal of Divorce & Remarriage, 53, 108–125. doi:10.1080/10502556.2012.651966
10.
CarrollJ. S.BadgerS.WilloughbyB. J.NelsonL. J.MadsenS. D.McNamara BarryC. (2009). Ready or not? Criteria for marriage readiness among emerging adults. Journal of Adolescent Research, 24, 349–375. doi:10.1177/0743558409334253
11.
CarrollJ. S.WilloughbyB. J.BadgerS.NelsonL. J.McNamara BarryC.MadsenS. D. (2007). So close, yet so far away: The impact of varying marital horizons on emerging adulthood. Journal of Adolescent Research, 22, 219–247. doi:10.1177/0743558407299697
12.
CherlinA. J. (2010). Demographic trends in the United States: A review of research in the 2000s. Journal of Marriage and Family, 72, 403–419. doi:10.1111/j.1741-3737.2010.00710.x
13.
CloggC. C.PetkovaE.HaritouA. (1995). Statistical methods for comparing regression coefficients between models. American Journal of Sociology, 100, 1261–1293.
14.
CrisseyS. R. (2005). Race/ethnic differences in the marital expectations of adolescents: The role of romantic relationships. Journal of Marriage and Family, 67, 697–709. doi:10.1111/j.1741-3737.2005.00163.x
15.
EdinK. (2000). What do low-income single mothers say about marriage?Social Problems, 47, 112–133. doi:10.2307/3097154
16.
EdinK.KefalasM. J.ReedJ. M. (2004). A peek inside the black box: What marriage means for poor unmarried parents. Journal of Marriage and Family, 66, 1007–1014.
17.
FinkelE. J.HuiC. M.CarswellK. L.LarsonG. M. (2014). The suffocation of marriage: Climbing mount Maslow without enough oxygen. Psychological Inquiry, 25, 1–41.
18.
GassanovM. A.NicholsonL. M.Koch-TurnerA. (2008). Expectations to marry among American youth: The effects of unwed fertility, economic activity,and cohabitation. Youth & Society, 40, 265–288. doi: 10.1177/0044118X08314260.
19.
Gibson-DavisC. M.EdinK.McLanahanS. (2005). High hopes but even higher expectations: The retreat from marriage among low-income couples. Journal of Marriage and Family, 67, 1301–1312. doi:10.1111/j.1741-3737.2005.00218.x
20.
GlennN. D.UeckerJ. E.LoveR. W. B.Jr. (2010). Later first marriage and marital success. Social Science Research, 39, 787–800. doi:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2010.06.002
21.
Halpern-MeekinS. (2012). Unlikely optimists, skeptics, and believers: Understanding adolescents’ prospective relationship views. Journal of Adolescent Research, 27, 606–631. doi:10.1177/0743558411432634
22.
HamiltonL.ArmstrongE. A. (2009). Gendered sexuality in young adulthood: Double binds and flawed options. Gender & Society, 23, 589–616.
23.
HatemiP. K.McDermottR.EavesL. (2015). Genetic and environmental contributions to relationships and divorce attitudes. Personality and Individual Differences, 72, 135–140. doi:10.1016/j.paid.2014.08.032
24.
Helweg-LarsenM.HardingH. G.KleinW. M. P. (2011). Will I divorce or have a happy marriage? Gender differences in comparative optimism and estimation of personal chances among U.S. college students. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 33, 157–166. doi:10.1080/01973533.2011.568874
25.
Kamp DushC. M.AmatoP. R. (2005). Consequences of relationship status and quality for subjective well-being. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, 22, 607–627. doi:10.1177/0265407505056438
26.
KapinusC. A. (2005). The effect of parental marital quality on young adults’ attitudes toward divorce. Sociological Perspectives, 48, 319–335. doi:10.1525/sop.2005.48.3.319
27.
KashdanT. B.VolkmannJ. R.BreenW. E.HanS. (2007). Social anxiety and romantic relationships: The costs and benefits of negative emotion expression are context-dependent. Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 21, 475–492. doi:10.1016/j.janxdis.2006.08.007
28.
KellyJ. B.EmeryR. E. (2003). Children’s adjustment following divorce: Risk and resilience perspectives. Family Relations, 52, 352–362. doi:10.1111/j.1741-3729.2003.00352.x
29.
KesslerR. C.BarkerP. R.ColpeL. J.EpsteinJ. F.GfroererJ. C.HiripiE.…ZaslavskyA. M. (2003). Screening for serious mental illness in the general population. Arch Gen Psychiatry. 2003;60(2):184–189. doi:10.1001/archpsyc.60.2.184
30.
KimH. K.McKenryP. C. (2002). The relationship between marriage and psychological well-being: A longitudinal analysis. Journal of Family Issues, 23, 885–911. doi:10.1177/019251302237296
31.
KirkA. (2003). The effects of divorce on young adults’ relationship competence: The influence of intimate friendships. Journal of Divorce & Remarriage, 38, 61.
32.
LichterD. T.BatsonC. D.BrownJ. B. (2004). Welfare reform and marriage promotion: The marital expectations and desires of single and cohabiting mothers. Social Service Review, 78, 2–25. doi:10.1086/380652
33.
ManningW. D.BrownS. L.PayneK. K. (2014). Two decades of stability and change in age at first union formation. Journal of Marriage and Family, 76, 247–260. doi:10.1111/jomf.12090
34.
ManningW. D.LongmoreM. A.GiordanoP. C. (2007) The changing institution of marriage: Adolescents’ expectations to cohabit and to marry. Journal of Marriage and Family, 69, 559–575. doi:10.1111/j.1741-3737.2007.00392.x
35.
McLanahanS. (2004). Diverging destinies: How children are faring under the second demographic transition. Demography, 41, 607–627.
36.
McLanahanS.JacobsenW. (2015). Diverging destinies revisited families in an era of increasing inequality (pp. 3–23). Berlin, Germany: Springer.
37.
MelloZ. R. (2009). Racial/ethnic group and socioeconomic status variation in educational and occupational expectations from adolescence to adulthood. Journal of Applied Developmental Psychology, 30, 494–504.
38.
MertonR. K. (1948). The self-fulfilling prophecy. The Antioch Review, 8, 193–210. doi:10.2307/4609267
39.
MillerA. J.SasslerS.Kusi-AppouhD. (2011). The specter of divorce: Views from working- and middle-class cohabitors. Family Relations, 60, 602–616. doi:10.1111/j.1741-3729.2011.00671.x
40.
NeffL. A.KarneyB. R. (2016). Acknowledging the elephant in the room: How stressful environmental contexts shape relationship dynamics. COPSYC, doi:10.1016/j.copsyc.2016.1005.1013
41.
O’brienR. M. (2007). A caution regarding rules of thumb for variance inflation factors. Quality & Quantity, 41, 673–690. doi:10.1007/s11135-006-9018-6
Perelli-HarrisB.BerringtonA.Sánchez GassenN.GalezewskaP.HollandJ. A. (2017). The rise in divorce and cohabitation: Is there a link?Population and Development Review, 43, 303–329. doi:10.1111/padr.12063
44.
PlotnickR. D. (2007). Adolescent expectations and desires about marriage and parenthood. Journal of Adolescence, 30, 943–963. doi:10.1016/j.adolescence.2007.01.003
ReedJ. M.EdinK. (2005). Why don’t they just get married? Barriers to marriage among the disadvantaged. The Future of Children, 15, 117–137.
47.
Sandberg-ThomaS. E.Kamp DushC. M. (2014). Indicators of adolescent depression and relationship progression in emerging adulthood. Journal of Marriage and Family, 76, 191–206. doi:10.1111/jomf.12081
48.
SmockP. J.ManningW. D.PorterM. (2005). “Everything’s there except money”: How money shapes decisions to marry among cohabitors. Journal of Marriage and Family, 67, 680–696.
49.
Survey Research Center, I. f. S. R. (2008). The panel study of income dynamics’ child development supplement transition into adulthood 2005. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan.
50.
TaskerF. L.RichardsM. P. M. (1994). Adolescents’ attitudes toward marriage and marital prospects after parental divorce: A review. Journal of Adolescent Research, 9, 340–362. doi:10.1177/074355489493004
51.
ThorntonA. (1985). Changing attitudes toward separation and divorce: Causes and consequences. American Journal of Sociology, 90, 856–872.
52.
ThorntonA.Young-DeMarcoL. (2001). Four decades of trends in attitudes toward family issues in the United States: The 1960s through the 1990s. Journal of Marriage and Family, 63, 1009–1037. doi:10.1111/j.1741-3737.2001.01009.x
53.
Von HippelP. T. (2007). Regression with missing Ys: An improved strategy for analyzing multiply imputed data. Sociological Methodology, 37, 83–117. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9531.2007.00180.x
54.
WallerM. R.PetersE. H. (2008). The risk of divorce as a barrier to marriage among parents of young children. Social Science Research, 37, 1188–1199. doi:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2008.05.010
55.
WhiteI. R.RoystonP.WoodA. M. (2010). Multiple imputation using chained equations: Issues and guidance for practice. Statistics in Medicine, 30, 377–399.
56.
WigfieldA.EcclesJ. S. (2000). Expectancy-value theory of achievement motivation. Contemporary Educational Psychology, 25, 68–81. doi:10.1006/ceps.1999.1015
57.
WilloughbyB. J. (2014). Using marital attitudes in late adolescence to predict later union transitions. Youth & Society, 46, 425–440. doi:10.1177/0044118x12436700
58.
WilloughbyB. J.DworkinJ. (2009). The relationships between emerging adults’ expressed desire to marry and frequency of participation in risk-taking behaviors. Youth & Society, 40, 426–450. doi:10.1177/0044118x08318116
59.
WilloughbyB. J.HallS. S. (2015). Enthusiasts, delayers, and the ambiguous middle: Marital paradigms among emerging adults. Emerging Adulthood, 3, 123–135. doi:10.1177/2167696814548478
60.
WilloughbyB. J.HallS. S.LuczakH. P. (2015). Marital paradigms: A conceptual framework for marital attitudes, values, and beliefs. Journal of Family Issues, 36, 188–211. doi:10.1177/0192513x13487677
61.
WilloughbyB. J.JamesS. L. (2017). The marriage paradox: Why emerging adults love marriage yet push it aside. Oxford, England: Oxford University Press.
