Beyond the mosque: Economic factors and Muslim political attitudes in Indonesia

Abstract

This study examines whether economic policy ideologies or economic threat perceptions predict Indonesian Muslim voters’ support for non-Muslim political leaders. Using 2018 World Values Survey data from 1877 employed Muslim respondents, the analysis tests two competing mechanisms. Traditional economic ideologies —preferences for income distribution, government ownership, welfare policies, and success determinants—show no relationship with support for non-Muslim leaders across presidential, mayoral, and parliamentary positions, confirming that left–right economic cleavages do not structure Indonesian political competition. However, perceptions of competition as threatening significantly reduce support for non-Muslim candidates, with effects strongest at local legislative levels characterized by direct patron–client relationships. Inter-religious trust buffers against competition-based exclusion, while competition anxiety manifests through eroded neighborhood trust and labor market concerns rather than explicit outgroup rejection. Moderate institutional trust correlates with viewing competition as harmful, suggesting partial confidence heightens awareness of competitive risks. These findings demonstrate that economic factors relate to religious-political attitudes through psychological mechanisms of perceived threat rather than ideological alignment, extending post-Ahok scholarship on religious mobilization by specifying individual-level pathways linking economic anxieties to political exclusion.