Report on a Study of Counterfacts as a Futures Research Technique for Forecasting Future Developments

Abstract

Counterfactuals are turning points in the evolving future and are often used to describe how the present or future might be different if, at a past turning point, the other road had been taken. The purpose of this article is to apply counterfactual analysis that has often been used in studies of history to future studies, in particular to uncover unexpected events, such as “Black Swans.” When we consider counterfacts as a tool for forecasting, we deal with unfinished business of the present. The fork in the road may be clear enough, but the choice of the path has not yet been made. But someday that choice may be made or will have to be made, and in speculating about it, we form images of the future and imagine scenarios based on chains of causality stretching forward from the fork. Thus, counterfactuals are our legacy to the future. In effect, we say to our children—or theirs: “Here are some issues left over from our time; sorry we couldn’t solve them. We hope you have better luck.”