Counterfactual Construction of the Future

Abstract

This article proposes the theory that counterfactual analysis may be used not only for building alternative scenarios of the past but also as a methodology for exploring the future. After defining three aspects of counterfactuality and counterfact (dormant facts, reinterpreted facts, and rumor) and illustrating each in historical contexts, the author outlines their prognostic potential with specific reference to recent events whose differing interpretations have profound implications for future policy and international relations planning. Based on these examples, the author concludes that using counterfactual analysis as a method for developing scenarios and forecasting represents a useful approach toward coping with uncertainty and identifying wild cards, black swans, and so on.