Methods of NIC’s Global Trends 2030

Abstract

The raw material from which the Global Trends 2030 report was derived came from commissioned papers, workshops, interviews, and feedback—all largely qualitative. In addition, a number of quantitative models were used to put numbers behind the ideas that came from the consultants. The synthesis of this information was performed by an individual (or the assembled team) to form megatrends, then a few game changers that could deflect those trends, then into potential worlds (the scenarios), and finally tested with “tectonic shifts” and “black swan” developments. Specific criticisms: the report itself has very meager information about the methods employed. Other methods of synthesis might have led to fresher, more quantitative, insights about the forecasts and policy opportunities. The future developments discussed in the report are not probabilistic nor are there effects stated in quantitative terms. Thus there was no measure of the depths of uncertainty associated with any of the forecasts. Similarly, there was no information about whether all of the experts agreed (unlikely) or what the disagreements might have been. The report was weak on policy; prescriptions for policies designed to improve the future were essentially absent. I was glad to see that black swans events were considered; however the black swans of the report are were all rather expected (e.g. climate change). A more imaginative set would have been welcome. Considerations of ethics and morality are also absent. Yet the report is useful and presents information worth pondering.