Challenging the Spiral of Negativity: A Longitudinal Choice Experiment on the Preference for Valenced News and Reinforcement of Societal Beliefs

Abstract

Prior research suggests that individuals not only prefer negative news over positive (negativity bias in news selection) but also favor information that aligns with their existing beliefs (confirmation bias). A likely consequence of these tendencies is that people will, on average, form beliefs that are biased toward perceiving reality as more negative, and that these dynamics will be mutually reinforcing over time. This study presents a preregistered longitudinal choice experiment designed to examine these dynamics in relation to negative and positive emphasis framing of news stories about Swedish schools. Contrary to the hypothesis of a general negativity bias in news selection, the results indicate a higher preference for positive news. However, the results support the expectation of a confirmation bias, as people with more negative (positive) beliefs were more like to choose negative (positive) news. Moreover, exposure to both positive and negative news led to more positive beliefs over time, suggesting that information effects were more influential than framing effects. Together, these findings challenge central claims within the literature on biases in news selection and their subsequent influence on societal beliefs.