This multimethodological study focuses on risk-induced electoral mobilization in referendum campaigns. Positive news framing in a referendum campaign can generate a perception of risk among those voters opposing the proposal and stimulate electoral participation to prevent an undesired outcome that would alter a status quo situation. To test this claim, the authors analyze the effect of news framing on turnout in the context of the 2005 Dutch EU Constitution referendum campaign and combine a media content analysis of national newspapers and television news (n = 6,370) with panel survey data (n = 642) and an experiment (n = 687). Experimental findings show that individuals who are skeptical toward the EU and are subsequently exposed to positive news framing about the EU Constitution are mobilized to turn out and vote against it. The results of the content analysis show that during the Dutch referendum campaign, news media framed the EU Constitution in positive terms. Building these findings into a measure of news exposure in our panel survey, the authors find that higher exposure to referendum news had a mobilizing effect on those opposing the proposal. The experimental and panel data thus show corroborating evidence supporting the central hypothesis about how positive news can mobilize the skeptics to turn out and vote in a referendum.
Aarts, K., and H. van der Kolk .2006. "Understanding the Dutch `No': The Euro, the East and the Elite."PS: Political Science and Politics39(2):243-46.
2.
Alvarez, M.1997. Information and Elections. Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press.
3.
American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR).2006. Standard Definitions: Final Disposition of Case Codes and Outcome Rates for Surveys. Lenexa, KS: AAPOR.
4.
Ansolabehere, S., S. Iyengar, A. Simon, and N. Valentino.1994. "Does Attack Advertising Demobilize the Electorate?" American Political Science Review88(4):829-38.
5.
Baden, C., and C. de Vreese.2008. "Making Sense: A Reconstruction of People's Understandings of the European Constitutional Referendum in the Netherlands ." Communications33:117-45.
6.
Bandura, A.1997. Self Efficacy: The Exercise of Control. New York: W.H. Freeman.
7.
Brunetti, A.1997. "Der `Status quo Bias'und die bremsende Wirkung des fakultativen Referendums." In Wieviel direkte Demokratie verträgt die Schweiz?Chur: Verlag Rüegger, ed. S. Borner and H. Rentsch, 167-82.
8.
Cappella, J., and K. Jamieson.1997. Spiral of Cynicism. The Press and the Public Good. New York: Oxford University Press.
9.
Chaffee, S., and J. Schleuder.1986. "Measurement and Effects of Attention to Media News." Human Communication Research13(1):76-107.
10.
Christin, T., S. Hug, and P. Sciarini.2002. "Interests and Information in Referendum Voting: An Analysis of Swiss Voters." European Journal of Political Research41:759-76.
11.
Cox, G., and M. Munger.1989. "Closeness, Expenditures, and Turnout in the 1982 U.S. House Elections."American Political Science Review83(1):217-31.
12.
Dawson, P., and J. Zinser.1976. "Political Finance and Participation in Congressional Elections."Annals of the American Academy of Political and Sociological Science425:59-73.
13.
de Vreese, C.2004. "The Effects of Strategic News on Political Cynicism, Issue Evaluations and Policy Support: A Two-Wave Experiment."Mass Communication and Society 7(2):191-215.
14.
de Vreese, C., S. Banducci, H. Semetko, and H. Boomgaarden.2006. "The News Coverage of the 2004 European Parliamentary Election Campaign in 25 Countries."European Union Politics7(4):477-504.
15.
de Vreese, C. and M. Tobiasen2007. "Conflict and identity. Explaining turnout and anti-integrationist voting in the Danish 2004 elections for the European Parliament."Scandinavian Political Studies30(1): 87-111
16.
de Vreese, C., and H. Semetko.2002. "Cynical and Engaged: Strategic Campaign Coverage, Public Opinion and Mobilization in a Referendum."Communication Research29(6):615-41.
17.
de Vreese, C., and H. Semetko.2004. Political Campaigning in Referendums. Framing the Referendum Issue. New York: Routledge.
18.
Ditto, P., and D. Lopez.1992. "Motivated Skepticism: Use of Differential Decision Criteria for Preferred and Nonpreferred Conclusions." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology63(4):568-84.
19.
Domke, D., D. Shah, and D. Wackman.1998. "`Moral Referendums': Values, News Media and the Process of Candidate Choice."Political Communication15:301-21.
20.
Dreyer Lassen, D.2005. "The Effect of Information on Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Natural Experiment."American Journal of Political Science49(1):103-18.
21.
Dunlop, S., M. Wakefield, and Y. Kashima.2008. "Can You Feel It? Negative Emotion, Risk, and Narrative in Health Communication."Media Psychology11(1):52-75.
22.
European Commission.2004a. Eurobarometer 61. Brussels: DG Press and Communication, European Commission.
23.
European Commission.2004b. Eurobarometer 62. Brussels: DG Press and Communication, European Commission.
24.
European Commission.2005a. Eurobarometer 63.4. Brussels: DG Press and Communication, European Commission.
25.
European Commission.2005b. Eurobarometer Special 214. Brussels: DG Press and Communication, European Commission.
26.
European Commission.2005c. Flash Eurobarometer 172. Brussels: DG Press and Communication, European Commission.
27.
Finkel, S., and J. Geer.1998. "A Spot Check: Casting Doubt on the Demobilizing Effect of Attack Advertising." American Journal of Political Science42(2):573-95.
28.
Fiske, S.1980. "Attention and Weight in Person Perception: The Impact of Negative and Extreme Behaviour." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology38:889-906.
29.
Franklin, M.2002. "Learning from the Danish Case: A Comment on Palle Svensson's Critique of the Franklin Thesis." European Journal of Political Research41(6):751-58.
30.
Franklin, M., M. Marsh, and C. Wlezien.1994. "Attitudes toward Europe and Referendum Votes: A Response to Siune and Svensson." Electoral Studies13:117-21.
31.
Geys, B.2006. "Explaining Voter Turnout: A Review of Aggregate-Level Research." Electoral Studies25(4):637-63.
32.
Glencross, A., and A. Trechsel.2007. "First or Second Order Referendums? Understanding the Votes on the EU Constitutional Treaty in Four EU Member States."Paper presented at the annual meetings of the European Consortium of Political Research (ECPR), Pisa, Italy.
33.
Goldstein, K., and P. Freedman.2002. "Campaign Advertising and Voter Turnout: New Evidence for a Stimulation Effect." Journal of Politics64(3):721-40.
34.
Granberg, D., and S. Holmberg.1991. "Self-Reported Turnout and Voter Validation."American Journal of Political Science35:448-59.
35.
Hastings, J., T. Kane, D. Staiger, and J. Weinstein.2007. "The Effect of Randomized School Admissions on Voter Participation." Journal of Public Economics91:915-37.
36.
Hobolt, S.B.2005. "When Europe Matters: The Impact of Political Information on Voting Behaviour in EU Referendums." Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties15(1):85-110.
37.
Hobolt, S.B.2006. "How Parties Affect Vote Choice in European Integration Referendums." Party Politics12(5):623-47.
38.
Ingberman, D.1985. "Running against the Status Quo: Institutions for Direct Democracy Referenda and Allocations over Time." Public Choice46(1):19-44.
39.
Iyengar, S.1991. Is Anyone Responsible? How Television Frames Political Issues. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
40.
Jenssen, A.,P. Pesonen, and M. Gilljam, eds. 1998. To Join or Not to Join: Three Nordic Referendums on Membership in the European Union. Oslo, Norway: Scandinavian University Press.
41.
Kahn, K., and P. Kenney.1999. "Do Negative Campaigns Mobilize or Suppress Turnout? Clarifying the Relationship between Negativity and Participation ." American Political Science Review93(4):877-89.
42.
Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky.1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk." Econometrics47:111-32.
43.
Kalichman, S., and B. Coley.1995. "Context Framing to Enhance HIV-Antibody-Testing Messages Targeted to African American Women."Health Psychology14(3):247-54.
44.
Kepplinger, H., and H. Weissbecker.1991. "Negativität als Nachrichtenideologie ." Publizistik36(3):330-42.
45.
Key, V.1966. The Responsible Electorate. New York : Random House.
46.
Kirchgässner, G., and T. Schulz.2005. "Expected Closeness or Mobilisation: Why Do Voters Go to the Polls? Empirical results for Switzerland, 1981-1999." CESifo working paper series no. 1387.
47.
Kleinnijenhuis, J., J. Takens, and W. van Atteveldt .2005. "Toen Europa de dagbladen ging vullen." In Nederlanders en Europa: Het referendum over de Europese Grondwet, ed. K. Aarts and H. van der Kolk.Amsterdam : Bert Bakker.
48.
Kriesi, H.2006. "Role of the Political Elite in Swiss Direct-Democratic Votes." Party Politics12(5):599-622.
49.
Lau, R.1982. "Negativity in Political Perception." Political Behavior4(4):353-77.
50.
Lau, R.1985. "Two Explanations for Negative Effects in Political Behavior ." Journal of Political Science29:119-38.
51.
Lau, R., L. Sigelman, and I.B. Rovner.2007. "The Effects of Negative Political Campaigns: A Meta-Analytic Reassessment."Journal of Politics69(4):1176-1209.
52.
LeDuc, L.2002. "Opinion Change and Voting Behaviour in Referendums ." European Journal of Political Research41:711-32.
53.
Lubbers, M.2008. "Regarding the Dutch `Nee' to the European Constitution. A Test of the Identity, Utilitarian and Political Approaches to Voting `No.'"European Union Politics9(1):59-86.
54.
Magleby, D.1989. "Opinion Formation and Opinion Change in Ballot Proposition Campaigns." In Manipulating Public Opinion, ed. M. Margolis and G.A. Mauser.Belmont, CA: Brooks/Cole Publishing Company.
55.
Marcus, G., W. Neuman, and M. MacKuen.2000. Affective Intelligence and Political Judgement. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
56.
Markowski, R., and J. Tucker.2005. "Pocketbooks, Politics, and Parties: The 2003 Polish Referendum on EU Membership."Electoral Studies24:409-33.
57.
Martin, P.2004. "Inside the Black Box of Negative Campaign Effects: Three Reasons Why Negative Campaigns Mobilize." Political Psychology25(4):545-62.
58.
Martin, P.2008. "The Mass Media as Sentinel: Why Bad News about Issues Is Good News for Participation." Political Communication25(2):180-93.
59.
Mazzoleni, G., and W. Schulz.1999. "`Mediatization' of Politics: A Challenge for Democracy?" Political Communication16:247-61.
60.
Meffert, M., S. Chung, A. Joiner, L. Waks, and J. Garst.2006. "The Effects of Negativity and Motivated Information Processing during a Political Campaign." Journal of Communication56:27-51.
61.
Miller, J., and J. Krosnick.2004. "Threat as a Motivator of Political Activism: A Field Experiment." Political Psychology25(4):507-23.
62.
Miller, J., J. Krosnick, A. Holbrook, and L. Lowe.2006. "The Impact of Policy Change Threat on Financial Contributions to Interest Groups." Unpublished manuscript.
63.
Mokken, R.1971. A Theory and Procedure of Scale Analysis with Applications in Political Research. The Hague, the Netherlands: Mouton.
64.
Morton, T., and J. Duck.2001. "Communication and Health Beliefs: Mass and Interpersonal Influences on Perceptions of Risk to Self and Others ." Communication Research28:602-26.
65.
Newton, K.1999. "Mass Media Effects: Mobilization or Video Malaise ?" British Journal of Political Science29(4):577-99.
66.
Niven, D.2006. "A Field Experiment on the Effects of Negative Campaign Mail on Voter Turnout in a Municipal Election." Political Research Quarterly59(2):203-10.
67.
Patterson, T.1993. Out of Order. New York: Knopf.
68.
Pratto, F., and O. John.1991. "Automatic Vigilance: The Attention-Grabbing Power of Negative Social Information." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology61:380-91.
69.
Price, V., D. Tewksbury, and E. Powers.1997. "Switching Trains of Thoughts: The Impact of News Frames on Readers' Cognitive Responses." Communication Research24(5):481-506.
70.
Raghubir, P., and G. Menon.2001. "Framing Effects in Risk Perception of AIDS." Marketing Letters12(2):145-55.
71.
Rimal, R., and K. Real.2003. "Perceived Risk and Efficacy Beliefs as Motivators of Change." Human Communication Research29(3): 370-99.
72.
Romer, T., and H. Rosenthal.1979. "Political Resource Allocation, Controlled Agendas, and the Status Quo."Public Choice33:27-44.
73.
Rothman, A., and P. Salovey.1997. "Shaping Perceptions to Motivate Healthy Behaviour: The Role of Message Framing." Psychological Bulletin121:3-19.
74.
Schmitt-Beck, R., and D. Farrell.2002. "Do Political Campaigns Matter?" In Do Political Campaigns Matter? Campaign Effects in Elections and Referendums, ed. D. Farrell and R. Schmitt-Beck.London: Routledge.
75.
Schneider, T., P. Salovey, A. Apanovitch, J. Pizarro, D. McCarthy, J. Zullo, and A.J. Rothman.2001. "The Effects of Message Framing and Ethnic Targeting on Mammography Use among Low-Income Women."Health Psychology20:256-66.
76.
Schuck, A., and C. de Vreese.2008. "The Dutch No to the EU Constitution: Assessing the role of EU skepticism and the campaign."Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties18(1): 101-128.
77.
Schuck, A., and C. de Vreese.2006. "Between Risk and Opportunity: News Framing and Its Effect of Public Support for EU Enlargement." European Journal of Communication21(1):5-32.
78.
Sigelman, L., and M. Kugler.2003. "Why Is Research on the Effects of Negative Campaigning so Inconclusive? Understanding Citizens' Perceptions of Negativity ." Journal of Politics65(1):142-60.
79.
Slater, M.2004. "Operationalizing and Analysing Exposure: The Foundation of Media Effects Research." Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly81(1):168-83.
80.
Slothuus, R.2008. "More Than Weighting Cognitive Importance: A Dual-Process Model of Issue Framing Effects." Political Psychology29(1):1-28.
81.
Szczerbiak, A., and P. Taggart.2004. "The Politics of European Referendum Outcomes and Turnout: Two Models." West European Politics27(4):557-83.
82.
Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman.1981. "The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice." Science211:453-58.
83.
Valentino, N., M. Beckmann, and T. Buhr.2001. "A Spiral of Cynicism for Some: The Contingent Effects of Campaign News Frames on Participation and Confidence in Government." Political Communication18:347-67.
84.
Valkenburg, P., H. Semetko, and C. de Vreese.1999. "The Effects of News Frames on Readers' Thoughts and Recall." Communication Research26(5):550-69.
85.
Verba, S., K. Lehman Schlozman, and H. Brady .1995. Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
86.
Wattenberg, M., and C. Brians.1999. "Negative Campaign Advertising: Demobilizer or Mobilizer?" American Political Science Review93(4):891-900.
87.
Zaller, J.R.1996. "The Myth of Massive Media Impact Revived: New Support for a Discredited Idea." In Political Persuasion and Attitude Change, ed. D.C. Mutz, P.M. Sniderman, and R.M. Brody, 17-78. Chicago: Chicago University Press.
