We explored the idea that the timing of executives’ career moves was consistent with Bak’s notion of self-organized criticality. Consistent with predictions, time series analysis of job changes for 43 hospitality executives obeyed a power law and revealed a mixture of predictable and unpredictable patterns with a musical nature (pink noise distribution). The data showed better fit for traditional ‘organization men’ versus opportunistic ‘trailblazers.’ These differences in career patterns (rhythms) could be used to reliably distinguish between these two executive-types using neural nets. Potential implications for executive coaching and development are discussed.
ArthurM. B.InksonK.PringleJ. K.1999. The new careers: Individual action and economic change. Thousand Oaks: Sage.
2.
BakP.1996. How nature works: The science of self-organized criticality. New York: Copernicus.
3.
CappelliP.HamoriM.2004. The path to the top: Changes in the attributes and careers of corporate executives, 1980-2001. NBER Working Paper No. 10507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge.
4.
CuttingJ. E.DeLongJ. E.NothelferC. E.2010. Attention and the evolution of Hollywood film. Psychological Science21:432-9.
GuastelloS. J.PeressiniA. F.BondR. W.2011. Orbital decomposition for ill-behaved event sequences: Transients and superordinate structures. Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences15:465-76.
7.
HallD. T.1986. Breaking career routines: Midcareer choice and identity development. In Career development in organizations, eds. HallD. T.and Associates, 120-59. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
8.
HandyC.1998. The hungry spirit: Beyond capitalism—a quest for purpose in the modern world. London: Random House.
9.
KefgenK.HouranJ.2010. The loneliness of leadership. Paper presented at the 2010 Cornell Hospitality Research Summit (CHRS), October 6-8, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York.
10.
LangeR.1999. A cusp catastrophe approach to the prediction of temporal patterns in the kill dates of individual serial murderers. Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences3:143-60.
11.
LouisM. R.1980. Career transitions: Commonalities and varieties. Academy of Management Review5:329-40.
12.
MinerA. S.RobinsonD. F.1994. Organizational and population level learning as engines for career transitions. Journal of Organizational Behavior15:345-64.
13.
SchoarA.ZuoL.2012. Shaped by booms and busts: How the economy impacts CEO careers and management styles. NBER Working Paper No. 17590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge.
14.
ThoreauH. D.1854/1904. Walden. New York: E. P. Dutton.
15.
VossR. F.ClarkJ.1978. 1/f Noise in music: Music from 1/f noise. Journal of the Acoustic Society63:362-71.
16.
WrzniewskiA.DuttonJ. E.DebebeG.2003. Interpersonal sensemaking and the meaning of work. Research in Organizational Behavior25:93-135.
