Navigating the job market: How do labour market conditions at entry affect tourism graduates’ career paths?

Abstract

This article examines the short- and medium-term effects of macroeconomic conditions at the time of graduation on the labour market integration of tourism university graduates. Using longitudinal data on 2616 graduates observed over 20 quarters post-graduation, we provide robust evidence that higher unemployment rates at labour market entry significantly impair subsequent career trajectories. Controlling for current macroeconomic conditions, we find that graduates entering the labour market during periods of high unemployment face increased odds of becoming inactive or unemployed in the medium term, along with a reduced likelihood of employment. These effects are explained by adverse economic conditions at entry, which limit opportunities for on-the-job training and skill acquisition, ultimately hindering career progression. We further show that these scarring effects do not differ between graduates holding a bachelor’s degree and those with a master’s degree, suggesting that postgraduate education does not provide additional protection against adverse entry conditions.