Abstract
The 2024 Summit of the Future was organized by the United Nations in quick succession to the two global conferences: in 2023 Sustainable Development Goals Summit and 2022 Stockholm + 50 Conference. It was a timely conclave to examine the state of the world in view of warning signs for a planetary level crisis. The Summit was expected to think aloud and ahead for the future of the planet Earth. Did it attain its objectives? The outcome document – Pact for the Future – provides a menu in usual UN jargon and gives calls to the UN member states to perform in several areas to secure future of our planet. Will the Pact help in making a course correction for the planetary future? Time will provide us answers to these questions. Still, the Summit yielded a great promise with an unwavering commitment to act in accordance with international law, including the Charter of the United Nations and its purposes and principles. The drafters of the Pact left no doubt whatsoever by positioning prima facie non-legally binding instrument (Pact for the Future) on the bedrock of International Law in general and the UN Charter in particular. The inclusion of two more instruments as annexes on Global Digital Compact and a Declaration on Future Generations, though work-in-progress, are also pregnant with futuristic possibilities. This paper seeks to provide a preliminary stocktaking of the Pact for the Future and its two annexes.
Keywords
Introduction
The Summit of the Future 1 which was held with great expectations ended on September 23, 2024 2 after two days of confabulations by a galaxy of Heads of State or Government and their high-level country delegations as well as intensive and interactive four dialogues. The 2024 Summit adopted an ambitious outcome document – Pact for the Future 3 – along with two annexes on Global Digital Compact and Declaration on Future Generations. It was presented by the President of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) as a draft that was formally adopted as the first resolution of the 79th Session (September 22, 2024).
Philémon Yang (former Prime Minister of Cameroon, elected as President of the 79th UNGA session on June 06, 2024), 4 expressed hope that the ideas exchanged would inspire further initiatives at national, regional and the global levels. Yang observed that “As we close the Summit of the Future, I urge all Member States to continue to push for decisive action and to create meaningful progress”. 5 The feisty UN Secretary-General (SG), Antonio Guterres, justified convening of the 2024 Summit by him since “twenty-first century challenges require twenty-first century solutions”. 6
2024 Summit of the Future
On September 22–23, 2024, all roads led to the UN headquarters in New York for the Summit of the Future. The leaders of 193-member organization assembled for annual 2024 confabulations that came to be known as the “Year of the Planetary Future” 7 8 to show a way out of the planetary level crisis amidst raging conflicts that have engulfed one-fourth of the humankind (2 billion people around the world). To buttress the mood of the Summit, the Indian Prime Minister referred to global conflicts (as a recurrent feature in most of recent addresses at the global forums) in these words: “Success of humanity lies in our collective strength, not in the battlefield, and for global peace and development, reforms in global institutions are essential.” His reference clearly alluded to India's aspirations to become a permanent member of the UNSC 9 as well as other pending ideas for UN reforms such as repurpose of the UN Trusteeship Council. 10
Described as once-in-a-generation UN Summit, it provided a unique stage to address current and future global challenges as well as reform of the UN Charter (1945). “I have one overriding message today: an appeal to Member States for a spirit of compromise
Planetary Crisis: Role of Scholarly Works
The current warning bells concerning planetary level crisis and quest of conscientious thought leaders and decision-makers to find solutions underscores proverbial dilemma of the humankind in living in harmony with nature. 12 It vividly reminded us about the alarm bells rung in the decades of sixties and seventies through scholarly works such as Silent Spring (Rachel Carson, 1962), 13 The Limits to Growth (Club of Rome, 1972), 14 This Endangered Planet (Richard Falk, 1972) 15 and Only One Earth 16 (Barbara Ward & Rene Dubos, 1972). They, in fact, set the stage for the epochal first UN Conference on Human Environment 17 (Stockholm, 1972). This author recalls his early publication (1986), as a doctoral scholar, sought to underscore that “human quest for development seriously threatens our fragile ecosystem”. 18 The resultant global environmental regulatory process has come a long way. However, those early publications works underscored the role of scholarly works in making sense and prognosis of the crucial periods in the history of humankind as well as to suggest a possible way out. This came to be true full 50 years later when Stockholm + 50 was held during June 2–3, 2022.
It led to two marathon processes resulting in the publication of scholarly works curated by this author in 2022 (Envisioning Our Environmental Future) 19 and 2021 (Our Earth Matters). 20 These two works within the limits of time, space and resources, in essence, reflected the spirit of the early works preceding the 1972 Stockholm Conference. As a corollary, on the eve of the Stockholm + 50 Conference (June 2–3, 2022), the crystallization of ideas and proposals of outstanding scholars from around the world, first published in Environmental Policy and Law 21 and separately published in the abovementioned two books (2022 and 2021), sought to remind the scholarly community, the UN system and the decision-makers in the world capitals about the rapidly “depleting time” 22 for a decisive course correction for our common environmental future on planet Earth.
The timing of the UN Summit was the humankind's “moment of truth” 23 wherein global challenges are moving faster than the ability to resolve them. It took place in the aftermath of the two mega conferences of 2022: (i) Stockholm + 50 24 and (ii) UNEP@50. 25 In his June 02, 2022 26 address at Stockholm + 50, the UNSG Antonio Guterres had warned that our consumption is “at the rate of 1.7 planets a year” and the “global well-being is in jeopardy”. The gathering storms indicate that the planetary-level human-induced crisis is at work. Since coming events cast their shadows before, humankind seems to have sleepwalked into an existential “triple planetary crisis”. 27
The advent of the UN (since 1945) has stood the test of time for 80 long years unlike the League of Nations that existed for 20 years (1919–1939). Notwithstanding its limits, as a member-driven general international organization in a State-centric global order, the UN matters most for humanity's survival on planet Earth. As a plenary organ of the UN, the General Assembly has been the main anchor for concerted international environmental law-making 28 and institution-building processes 29 comprising the normative approaches at work. Pursuing the global conferencing technique, the UNGA took crucial decisions over the years across a wide canvass that include convening of some major global conferences (1972, 1992, 2002, 2012, 2022 and 2024). The AR6 Synthesis Report 30 (Interlaken; March 13–19, 2023) of the IPCC, set up by the UNGA in 1988, has now unequivocally confirmed widespread and rapid “human-caused climate change” occurred in the “atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere…in every region across the globe”.
The Pact for the Future
The UNSG Guterres observed, in his candid exhortatory style, in opening remarks to the assembled world leaders at the Summit of the Future (September 22, 2024): “We are here to bring multilateralism back from the brink. I called for this Summit to consider deep reforms to make global institutions more legitimate, fair and effective, based on the values of the UN Charter… our world is heading off the rails – and we need tough decisions to get back on track”.
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Interestingly, the cue provided in the UNSG's address for taking multilateralism seriously, found an echo in the final Pact adopted at the Summit:
“Today, we pledge a new beginning in multilateralism. The actions in this Pact aim to ensure that the United Nations and other key multilateral institutions can deliver a better future for people and planet, enabling us to fulfil our existing commitments while rising to new and emerging challenges and opportunities”.
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The significance of the pledge to swear by “multilateralism” can be measured from the fact that in the very next paragraph, the contours of reaffirmation of this audacious instrumentality has been assured through “unwavering commitment to act in accordance with international law, including the Charter of the United Nations and its purposes and principles” (paragraph 8). It is corollary to the earlier pledge of “recommitment to international cooperation based on respect for international law” (paragraph 5) as well as subsequent reiterations that “we must abide by international law, including the Charter (paragraph 12) as well as every “commitment in this Pact is fully consistent and aligned with international law, including human rights law” (paragraph 13). Thus, it appears, the drafters of the Pact have left no doubt whatsoever by positioning prima facie non-legally binding instrument (Pact for the Future) on the bedrock of International Law in general and the UN Charter in particular. It appears unprecedented that the final outcome declaration (designated as the ‘Pact’) of a summit comprises such explicit pledges and commitment for adherence to the architecture of International Law of which the UN Charter itself is a product. Like a treaty-based process for a review and compliance with commitments, the Pact has laid down an in-built timeframe for such a review by Heads of State and Government after 4-year hiatus at the 83rd session (2028) of the UNGA.
The Summit of the Future outcome document - Pact for the Future – is a negotiated text (56 actions point arranged in 84 paragraphs) 33 agreed upon through intergovernmental negotiations. It comprises two annexes containing two other instruments: (i) Global Digital Compact and (ii) Declaration on Future Generations. The Pact pledges for a new beginning in multilateralism. It aims to ensure that the UN and other key multilateral institutions can deliver a better future for people and planet. It could enable states to fulfil existing commitments amidst new and emerging challenges and opportunities. The renewed thrust would be on “equally important, interlinked and mutually reinforcing” across three pillars of the United Nations – sustainable development, peace and security, and human rights. It has also been emphasized that “every commitment in this Pact is fully consistent and aligned with international law, including human rights law”. 34
In the opening session of the first day (September 22), the tone of the Summit was set by Philemon Yang, President of the UNGA and the UNSG António Guterres. While the Plenary Meeting took place in the General Assembly Hall, the interactive dialogues were held in the Trusteeship Council Chamber. Interestingly, there are scholarly ideas (originally mooted by this author in an invited talk of January 15, 1999 at Legal Department of the World Bank, Washington DC) 35 from the Global South to ‘repurpose’ the same UN Trusteeship Council 36 with a new mandate for global environment and global commons.
The Summit had four intensive interactive dialogues 37 : (i) Transforming global governance and turbocharging the implementation of the 2030 agenda for sustainable development, Co-Chaired by K P Sharma Oli, Prime Minister of Nepal; (ii) Enhancing multilateralism for international peace and security, Co-Chaired by Julius Maada Bio, President of Sierra Leone; (iii) Towards a Common Digital Future: strengthening inclusive innovation and cooperation to bridge the digital divides, Co-Chaired by Alar Karis, President of Estonia and Mohamed Muizzu, President of Maldives); (iv) The Future Starts Now: enhancing the global system for current and future generations, Co-Chaired by Andrew Holness, Prime Minister of Jamaica and Evelyn Wever-Croes, Prime Minister of the Netherlands.
The finally adopted Pact for the Future contains five pillars
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of sustainable development and financing for development, international peace and security, science, technology and innovation and digital cooperation, youth and future generations and transforming global governance. The two year-long preparatory process for the Summit brought about the realization that future of our international order is at stake and it cannot stand still. It promises to “promote cooperation and understanding between Member States, defuse tensions, seek the pacific settlement of disputes and resolve conflicts”. For the first time, the Pact has laid down a roadmap for reform of the UNSC to make it “more representative, inclusive, transparent, efficient, effective, democratic and accountable”. In essence, it considers the rationale for enlargement of the UNSC based of various criteria, categories of membership as well as widely felt need for taming of the use of veto. The UNGA has already put into place, vide resolution 76/262 of 26 April 2022 (the veto initiative), one such restraint and a sort of ‘accountability’ through “standing mandate for a General Assembly debate when a veto is cast in the Security Council” as follows:
“Decides that the President of the General Assembly shall convene a formal meeting of the General Assembly within 10 working days of the casting of a veto by one or more permanent members of the Security Council, to hold a debate on the situation as to which the veto was cast, provided that the Assembly does not meet in an emergency special session on the same situation; Also decides, on an exceptional basis, to accord precedence in the list of speakers to the permanent member or permanent members of the Security Council having cast a veto; Invites the Security Council, in accordance with Article 24 (3) of the Charter of the United Nations, to submit a special report on the use of the veto in question to the General Assembly at least 72 hours before the relevant discussion in the Assembly”.
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In this context, therefore, the Pact, suggests for intensifying efforts “to reach an agreement on the future of the veto, including discussions on limiting its scope and use”. The G4 group (Brazil, Germany, India and Japan) countries have been consistently making a case for urgent UNSC reforms.
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Indicative of the things to come, the Pact underscores the centrality of the General Assembly as the UN's “chief deliberative, policymaking and representative organ”. Therefore, it has called for further enhancing and making full use of the role and authority of the UNGA to address evolving global challenges. In view of the consistent stalemates in the UNSC and its ineffectiveness to stop most of the global conflicts, the UNGA could also possibly play role in matters concerning maintenance of international peace and security. The Assembly draws its mandate from Article 11 of UN Charter 41 that empowers it to “discuss any questions relating to the maintenance of international peace and security” as well as “may make recommendations with regard to any such questions to the state or states concerned or to the Security Council or both” (Article 11). The Assembly did invoke this power vide resolution 377 A (V) of November 03, 1950 “Uniting for peace” 42 resolution in the 1950 Korean crisis. The Charter has also conferred similar unique power (Article 99) upon the Secretary-General to bring to the “attention of the Security Council any matter which in his opinion may threaten the maintenance of international peace and security”. 43 Invoking this power, the UNSG Guterres wrote an unprecedented letter on December 06, 2023 to the UNSC President in view of the “appalling human suffering, physical destruction and collective trauma across Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory”. 44
From the perspective of Law of International Organization, the UN Charter contains beautiful balancing between the two principal UN organs (UNGA and UNSC). Notwithstanding the UNSC's inherent inequality due to ‘veto’ possessed by the P5 countries, the Assembly was expected to fill up the gap whenever the UNSC is deadlocked due to exercise of veto by one of the P5 countries. It could be vividly seen in the convening of the 11th Emergency Special Session that took some vital decisions on conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza. For instance, in the aftermath of the Russian veto to defend its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, 45 the adoption of the resolution 76/262 on April 26, 2022 46 is one such concrete example to bring about balance by the plenary organ (General Assembly) whenever the enforcement organ (Security Council) is deadlocked. This extraordinary step shows the future pathway to blunt the edges in the use of veto by P5. Hopefully, it could render veto less attractive for the future expansion of the UNSC. That inevitably opens the doors for the third category of the UNSC's permanent membership without veto. It now appears to be the pragmatic way out for G4 to secure a permanent seat on the UNSC's proverbial horse-shoe table.
Significantly, the Pact contains consensual understanding on the need “for the selection and appointment process of the Secretary-General to be guided by the principles of merit, transparency and inclusiveness”. As regards the selection and appointment processes for the next UN Secretary-General, the Pact emphatically notes “regrettable fact that there has never been a woman Secretary-General, and we encourage Member States to consider nominating women as candidates”. 47 Possibly, it indicates winds of change and things to come when successor to Antonio Guterres will be deliberated upon both by the UNGA and the UNSC.
Two Annexes
The Pact comprises two special annexes on Global Digital Compact (37–52 pages; 74 paragraphs) and Declaration on Future Generations (52–56 pages; 32 paragraphs). These could have been inserted within the Pact itself. It seems, due to their size (25 and 5 pages respectively), both the annexes have come to be tagged with the main Pact. As such, like any annex to a treaty, they are an integral part of the Pact.
Global Digital Compact
The UNSG spelled out the rationale and scope of the Global Digital Compact based on the principle that technology should benefit everyone and therefore the Compact: “It includes the first truly universal agreement on the international governance of Artificial Intelligence. It commits governments to establishing an independent international Scientific Panel on AI and initiating a global dialogue on its governance within the United Nations. The Global Digital Compact represents the first collective effort to reach agreed interoperability standards – essential for consistent measurement. And it supports networks and partnerships to build capacity on AI in developing countries”.
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The Compact enlists a detailed menu of issues and implications of the digital technologies as well as the new challenge of the big digital divide. It appears, this divide has inevitably led to a new cluster of have and have-nots among the sovereign states. Therefore, the Compact would possibly help in laying the ground for bringing about some balance to bridge the digital divide. In a way inclusion of the Digital Compact in the 2024 Summit also signified an early harvesting of new digital technological capabilities and opportunities for advancing environmental sustainability. Thus, the inclusion of almost 25 page long detailed Compact in the Pact for the Future presents a great promise. Notwithstanding the digital divide, the multilateral cooperation could help in leveraging digital technologies for sustainability and also minimize their negative environmental impacts.
As a concrete pathway, the Compact aims to put into place by 2030, some strands of commitment and actions 51 that would yield results, globally: (1). Close all digital divides and accelerate progress across the Sustainable Development Goals; (2). Expand inclusion in and benefits from the digital economy for all; (3). Foster an inclusive, open, safe and secure digital space that respects, protects and promotes human rights; (4). Advance responsible, equitable and interoperable data governance approaches; (5). Enhance international governance of artificial intelligence for the benefit of humanity. The Compact has recognized the challenging nature of the task ahead wherein the entire UN system will need to marshal its energy and resolve and mobilize required financial resources in conjunction with all the stakeholders including international and regional organizations, the private sector, academia, the technical community and civil society groups. It would entail an audacious effort to realize the objectives and the principles of the Compact to usher into an equitable era of global digital cooperation. How far it can be met by stated target year of 2030 would depend upon the harmonious collaborative churning among the UN system, the UN member states, digital technology behemoths and the global knowledge architecture.
Declaration on Future Generations
As regards the Declaration on Future Generations, it is organized along preamble, guiding principles, commitments and actions. It seems to echo the call of the UN Charter “to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war”. 52 Significantly, the Declaration places the entire instrument, just like the Digital Compact, within the remit of the Charter of the United Nations, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and respective obligations of the UN member states under the corpus of international law. 53 It is also remarkable that for the first time a global instrument (though non-legally binding) brings the formulation of “future generations” in a multilateral setting and explains that they would comprise “all those generations that do not yet exist, and who will inherit this planet”. 54 Therefore, the Declaration places onus on the UN member states in committing governments for the first time to consider the interests of persons yet to be born who will inherit the consequences of the decisions they take today.
As a guiding principle, the Declaration, like the Digital Compact, raises the bar and makes International Law as its loadstar and reaffirms: “full respect for international law, must be promoted in line with the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations”. It seems while bringing the “future generations” within the setting of multilateral negotiations, the Declaration has set the ball rolling for other follow-up instrumentalities to elaborate the needs and aspirations of the future decedents of the present generation yet to be born. Thus, in a futuristic way, the Declaration imparts locus and a kind of representation to the future generations in the global decision-making processes of today. Therefore, it would be prudent to make sense of this as an effort within human limits to salvage and secure undefined future for the generations yet to come. The Declaration has been organized along four strands of preamble (11 paragraphs) guiding principles (10 paragraphs), commitments (13 paragraphs) and actions (9 paragraphs). This instrument in Annex II is short. Yet it is pregnant with unlimited possibilities to reign in and regulate the behavior of sovereign states.
It was made amply clear at the 2022 Stockholm + 50 conference that in spite of all the gigantic global regulatory efforts, the environment has deteriorated to the extent that a planetary level crisis has set in. It shows that adverse effects on the interests and wellbeing of the present generations has not adequately deterred the sovereign states. Will factoring of needs, aspirations and interests of the future generations make any material difference in the course correction for the future of the planet? It is a big question mark. The Declaration notes the proposal of the UNSG to anoint a Special Envoy for Future Generations. Cumulatively, the Declaration holds a great promise. Still, proof of the pudding would lie in the eating in terms of how far the UN system and the sovereign states would walk-the-talk. Thus, it can be considered to be a work-in-progress.
Conclusion
To sum up, within the limits of time and space, it can be surmised that, there were high expectations that the Summit of the Future “cannot fail.” In his press conference at the start of the 79th session of the UNGA, the Secretary-General Antonio Guterres had set the stage for the 2024 Summit and emphasized that “international challenges are moving faster than our ability to solve them…twenty-first century challenges require problem-solving mechanisms that are more effective, networked and inclusive…We can’t create a future fit for our grandchildren with systems built for our grandparents”. 55 The outcome document of the 2024 Summit – Pact for the Future 56 – along with two annexes (Global Digital Compact and Declaration on Future Generations) shows resilience and working of multilateralism at its best. However, the main challenge would lie in actually walking-the-talk for the leaders of all the 193 UN member states as to how far they take this futuristic instrument seriously. The UNSG also asserted 57 that “we can’t create a future fit for our grandchildren with systems built for our grandparents”. He has repeatedly hammered on the point that “twenty-first century challenges require twenty-first century solutions” and adding a sense of urgency urged the UN members that “we cannot wait for perfect conditions. We must take the first decisive steps towards updating and reforming international cooperation to make it more networked, fair and inclusive – now. 58
In September 2020 virtual address to the 75th UNGA session as well as September 25, 2021 address at the 76th UNGA, 59 India had called for “comprehensive UN reforms” since “we cannot fight today's challenges with outdated structures.”. 60 On September 23, 2024, 61 once again India asserted that the “success of humanity lies in our collective strength not in the battlefield.” As 59 plus global conflicts (Uppsala Conflict Data Program, June 03, 2024) 62 jeopardize future of at least 2 billion people, endanger peace and prosperity and derail multilateralism on institutionalized platform of the UN, it would require a revisit, in conjunction with other components, processes and structures of the UN, of the Charter ‘blueprint’ for the prohibition of “threat or use for force” [Article 2(4) and Article 51] 63 to make it effective for the remaining three quarters of the twenty-first century.
In order to operationalize the Pact for the Future, 64 it would necessitate sincere and concerted follow-up action by the UNSG, the UN system as a whole and all the 193-member states. It presents a challenge for the global scholarly community to ideate on the Planetary Future. 65 From his small perch at India's premier University (JNU) in New Delhi, 12, 000 km away from the decision-making center (UN in New York) of the world, this author has audaciously sought to make a modest contribution to the global knowledge pool by bringing together cutting-edge ideas of some of the outstanding thought leaders. As a corollary, the author curated and published [Part – I; EPL Special Issue 54 (2–3), 2024 on “The Planetary Future”] 66 contribution of ten eminent scholars prior to the 2024 Summit of the Future. The rest of the ten cutting-edge contributions will be published in Part – II of the EPL Special Issue 54 (4-5-6) in January 2025. It shows that its within remit of the conscientious scholars, in spite of all human limits as well as irrespective of location, resources and hindrances (all kinds of mindsets, processes and systems), to think aloud and ahead for a better common future of our planet Earth.
Footnotes
Funding
The author received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
Declaration of conflicting interests
The author declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.