A Hybrid DEMATEL–ISM–CN–BN Framework for Explosive Risk Analysis in Hydrogenation Processes

Abstract

This paper proposes an integrated DEMATEL–ISM–CN–BN framework for modeling the coupling and evolution of explosion risks in hydrogenation processes. The novelty of this approach lies in its systematic integration of four distinct methodologies, combining static structural analysis with dynamic probabilistic reasoning to comprehensively capture risk interactions across multiple system levels. Specifically, the framework identifies risk factors, reveals causal and system-level hierarchical propagation pathways, and quantifies risk evolution. Applied to a diesel hydrogenation unit, the model captures cross-level interactions involving reactor pressure, compressor anomalies, and flow reversals. A composite weighting system—based on centrality (α), hierarchy (β), and clustering (θ)—facilitates risk prioritization. Sensitivity analysis and the sensitivity–importance (SI) matrix highlight critical components such as the hydrofinishing reactor and hydrogen compressors. The results demonstrate the framework's capability to quantify complex interdependencies and support targeted risk mitigation in high-risk chemical operations.