Although pacing strategies and performance predictors have been extensively investigated in ultra-marathon running events, the 12-h ultra-marathon remains relatively understudied. The aim of the present study was to investigate the pacing profiles during a 12-h ultra-marathon event and to develop a predictive model of performance based on aerobic and anthropometric laboratory measures. Fifteen experienced male ultra-marathon runners completed an incremental treadmill test to exhaustion and subsequently participated in a 12-h track ultra-marathon race. Participants adopted a reverse J-shaped pacing strategy. Although no significant interaction between performance level and mean hourly running velocity was observed, high-level runners exhibited significantly lower velocity variability (CV). Furthermore, the predictive model demonstrated that body fat percentage, BMI, VT and HRmax were strong predictors of 12-h ultra marathon performance, showing a high explanatory capacity when combined. In conclusion, these findings highlight the combined importance of body composition, aerobic capacity and pacing regulation in optimizing performance during time-limited ultra-marathon events.
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