A situation-modulated minimal change account for causal inferences about causal networks

Abstract

Although causal Bayes networks are applicable to examining causal inferences about different static objects and about a changing object with different states, previous studies investigated the former, but not the latter. We propose a situation-modulated minimal change account for causal inferences. It predicts that dynamic situations are more likely to elicit minimal revisions on causal networks and adherence to the Markov assumption than static situations. Two experiments were conducted to investigate qualitative causal inferences about causal networks with binary and numerical variables, respectively. It was found that qualitative causal inferences were more likely to adhere to the Markov assumption in dynamic situations than in static situations. This finding supports the situation-modulated minimal change account rather than the other alternative accounts. We conclude that dynamic situations are more likely to elicit minimal revisions on causal networks and adherence to the Markov assumption than static situations. This conclusion is beyond the previous predominant view that causal inferences are apt to violate the Markov assumption.