The Effect of Monitoring and Crowds on Referee Behavior: A Natural Experiment From European Football

Abstract

The full impact of the return of fans following the COVID-19 lockdowns on European football referee and player behavior is not well understood. Previous research primarily focused on the impact of total attendance bans on match outcomes in a difference-in-differences approach. Only two papers analyze the impact of the return of fans to matches on match outcomes and neither analyzed multiple seasons following the return of fans. We address these issues by analyzing the return of fans to football matches in the five largest European football leagues before and after games played with no fans in attendance using event study methods that allow for variable impacts over time. We also apply this method to analyze the impact of video assistant referee (VAR) oversight of referee decisions. Results from event study models estimated separately for each league indicate that both events influenced the number of fouls called with substantial heterogeneity across leagues. Fouls called in matches after the return of fans decreased in matches in Italy, the UK, and France and increased temporarily in matches in Germany. The reduction in fouls may reflect post-pandemic changes in public pressure placed on referees and players by fans, perhaps because of the airborne transmission of influenza viruses.

Keywords

football fouls referee bias public pressure

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