Preliminary Validation of the Juvenile First Offender Risk Assessment Index

Abstract

Objective: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the validity of the First Offender Risk Assessment Index (FORAI) in predicting delinquent behavior. The measure comprises seven predictor variables: family's history of criminal involvement, school functioning, substance abuse, peer group associations, parental supervision, age at first court referral, and seriousness of the referring offense. Method: Longitudinal data on rates of recidivism were collected for 181 first offenders who, along with their parents, were previously administered the FORAI. Results: The data analysis indicated that the FORAI correctly classified the recidivism of more than 70% of the study sample and that four of the seven predictor variables in the measure were found statistically significant. Conclusions: The results suggest that the FORAI, as a composite measure, could provide a meaningful approach to the early identification of at-risk youth and is a valid predictor of recidivism among a first-offender population. Implications for social work practice are also discussed.