The defeat of a swarm of uncrewed aerial systems is an important problem for current fighting forces. The purpose of this paper is to develop a simplified framework in which the defeat of such a swarm may be quantified. This is in the context where area surveillance is provided by an -band radar system and defense is through a directed energy weapon, hence providing an integrated solution. When specialized to high energy laser defense, it is necessary to develop a new modeling framework for performance prediction. Previous studies modeled threat arrivals through a renewal process. When threat arrivals are governed through a detection process, there is a significant increase in modeling complexity. Hence, this paper demonstrates how these difficulties can be avoided by developing a performance metric based upon order statistics. This metric provides a means of quantifying the probability of defeat of a swarm within a given time interval, as well as the probability that at least one swarm member reaches its intended target. This allows the operational effectiveness of the integrated sensing and effecting system to be determined under mathematical modeling assumptions, which can provide some important insights for military strategists and system designers.
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