Applying the Lanchester equations to model conflicts involving tunnels

Abstract

Tunnels have become a significant factor in modern warfare, providing concealment, protection, and strategic advantages to combatants. The use of tunnels complicates warfare, making it challenging for military planners to analyze operations involving extensive tunnel networks. The study introduces a technique that uses a modified form of the Lanchester equations to model scenarios where one army is significantly leveraging tunnels. This technique uses agent-based combat models to estimate the attrition coefficients required for the model. A case study of the Gaza conflict is presented, where Israel confronts Hamas, a group extensively using tunnels. In this scenario, Israeli forces engage Hamas fighters in urban areas, discover a tunnel network, and proceed to clear the tunnel. Despite Israel’s numerical superiority, which ultimately allows them to win the conflict, the use of tunnels enabled Hamas to inflict considerably more damage. This case study underscores the substantial impact of tunnel warfare on conflict dynamics. The technique presented in this study also provides valuable insights into the operational and strategic effects of tunnels in contemporary military engagements.