Estimating attrition coefficients for the Lanchester equations from small-unit combat models

Abstract

The Lanchester equations are a valuable tool for analyzing attrition warfare and the impact of new technologies on the battlefield. However, uncertainties regarding the numerical values of attrition coefficients pose a challenge in accurately applying these equations. To address this, entity-based combat simulations focusing on small-unit operations can offer insights into calculating attrition coefficients and analyzing the effects of new technology on the battlefield. This study outlines the development of such entity-based simulations and the associated derivation of attrition coefficients from the results. One method involves using combat simulation to determine the combat multiplier factor associated with a new technology and multiplying the attrition coefficients accordingly. The second method involves basing the attrition coefficients solely on the results of the model. This paper explores each of these methods through two case studies, both of which use the Infantry Warrior Simulation (IWARS). The first case study examines the Battle of Mosul, analyzing the impact of drone technology on ISIS insurgents and the Iraqi army. The second case study investigates the influence of a more accurate rifle in a conflict involving rural and urban combat. It is important to note that these models provide approximations for attrition coefficients and are subject to inherent limitations. Nonetheless, they offer value by capturing the broader implications of integrating technological changes at the small-unit level.