Derivation and implications of patient condition estimates

Abstract

Computer-based medical materiel item estimation is accomplished by clinically coupling injuries and illnesses to the supplies necessary to treat these conditions. In a relatively straightforward way, the materiel necessary to treat a stream of patients can be calculated by summing across the supplies necessary for each malady in any given patient stream. This method was formalized by the Naval Health Research Center in the patented process embodied in the Estimating Supplies Program. The success of this method depends on an accurate probability estimate for the occurrence of each illness and trauma.

There are several methods for estimating these discrete probabilities. This paper documents and defines the various types of estimates and explains the differences between them to reduce confusion and to standardize nomenclature.