Experimental Investigation of Predictive Probabilistic and Temporal Conflict Avoidance Displays

Abstract

Numerous automated systems are currently in use to assist controllers during air and naval traffic management. However, inferring the future intentions and courses of numerous aircraft or ships at various points in time remains problematic due to a variety of control disturbances. In this paper, a new graphical display concept was evaluated. This display concept provides predictive information about the time, location, and probability of potential traffic conflicts in the form of topological contour displays that were superimposed onto conventional traffic information. Performances on two formats of the new graphical display were compared to a conventional display that does not present predictive traffic information. Participants in the study engaged in a ship control collision avoidance task by performing a series of ship manoeuvres to minimize the danger levels of potential collisions. Although the results of the study are pending, it is hypothesized that the new graphical displays will assist participants in making improved manoeuvring decisions to avoid potential conflicts compared to the conventional display.