When Push Comes to Shove: An Experimental Analysis of Voter Support of a Woman President and the 2024 Nomination

Abstract

A woman has not yet shattered the “hardest, highest glass ceiling” of the American presidency. Our research answers two questions: Which groups are more likely to believe electing a woman president to be historically important? (R₁), and When a presidential election is at stake, who is likely to support a woman candidate? (R₂). Using observational data (n = 1075), our findings indicate that women, people who recognize sexism within politics, Democrats, and liberals are more likely to view a woman president as historic. Utilizing a list experiment of hypothetical 2024 presidential matchups, few who claimed to view a woman president as historic were willing to cast a vote in their favor. When push came to shove, Democratic women were the group most likely to vote for a woman presidential candidate. As parties look toward the future, this study offers insight into how voters respond to potential nominees and who parties will nominate.