The Way Back After Backsliding: Public Opinion and the Restoration of Democracy

Abstract

Abundant prior research has analyzed the mass public’s role in democratic backsliding. Comparatively little research has studied democratic restoration, the rehabilitation of democratic institutions following backsliding. We investigate this issue using the case of Poland, where the pro-democratic alliance led by Donald Tusk won the parliamentary election in 2023 after eight years of democratic backsliding under the Law and Justice party. A central concern is whether such an opportunity to restore democratic institutions fuels anti-democratic sentiment among vengeful winners and disappointed losers in a polarized society. Using panel survey data, we show that the election result did not exacerbate anti-democratic attitudes on either side. At the same time, survey experiments reveal that pro-democratic elites may jeopardize the winners’ benevolence by using an aggressive, confrontational restoration strategy. The findings may inform current and future endeavors to restore democratic institutions in Poland and other cases such as the United States.