Republicans,Not Democrats,Are More Likely to Endorse Anti-Vaccine Misinformation

Abstract

Vaccine safety skeptics are often thought to be more likely to self-identify as Democrats (vs. Independents or Republicans). Recent studies, however, suggest that childhood vaccine misinformation is either more common among Republicans, or is uninfluenced by partisan identification (PID). Uncertainty about the partisan underpinnings of vaccine misinformation acceptance is important, as it could complicate efforts to pursue pro-vaccine health policies. I theorize that Republicans should be more likely to endorse anti-vaccine misinformation, as they tend to express more-negative views toward scientific experts. Across six demographically and nationally representative surveys, I find that—while few Americans think that “anti-vaxxers” are more likely to be Republicans than Democrats—Republican PID is significantly associated with the belief that childhood vaccines can cause autism. Consistent with theoretical expectations, effect is strongly mediated by anti-expert attitudes—an effect which supplemental panel analyses suggest is unlikely to be reverse causal.