In this article, we examine the role that in-migration played in contributing to the 2008 Democratic presidential victory in North Carolina. Prior to Barack Obama, the last time the Tar Heel State was carried by a Democrat was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Since the late 1980s, North Carolina has undergone tremendous demographic change. In addition to a growing Hispanic population that is primarily comprised of noncitizens, the state has witnessed a very large increase in the number of residents who were born and raised in Northern states such as New York. Historically, in much of the postwar South, Northern migrants helped grow the Republican Party. We find that in North Carolina this pattern no longer holds. In contemporary North Carolina, migrants born outside the South are more likely to identify and register as politically unaffiliated, and their growing share of the state’s electorate directly contributed to Obama’s narrow win.
Abramowitz, A.I., & Saunders, K.L. (1998). Ideological realignment in the U.S. electorate. Journal of Politics, 60, 634-652.
2.
Aistrup, J.A. (1996). The Southern strategy revisited: Republican top-down advancement in the South. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky.
3.
Arsenault, R. (1984). The end of the long hot summer: The air conditioner and southern culture. Journal of Southern History, 50, 597-628.
4.
Barone, M., & Cohen, R.E. (2009). The almanac of American politics 2010. Washington, DC: National Journal.
5.
Bass, J., & De Vries, W. (1995). The transformation of southern politics: Social change and political consequence since 1945. Athens: University of Georgia Press.
6.
Beck, P.A. ( 1977). Partisan dealignment in the postwar South. American Political Science Review, 71, 477-496.
7.
Black, E., & Black, M. (1987). Politics and society in the South. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
8.
Black, E., & Black, M. (1992). The vital South: How presidents are elected. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
9.
Black, E., & Black, M. (2002). The rise of southern Republicans. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
10.
Black, E., & Black, M. (2007). Divided America: The ferocious power struggle in American politics. New York: Simon & Schuster.
11.
Brown, T.A. (1988). Migration and politics: The impact of population mobility on American voting behavior. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.
12.
Bullock, C.S., III. , & Hood, M.V., III. (2006). A mile-wide gap: The evolution of Hispanic political emergence in the Deep South. Social Science Quarterly, 87, 1117-1135.
13.
Campbell, B.A. (1977). Patterns of change in the partisan loyalties of native southerners: 1952-1972. Journal of Politics, 39, 730-761.
14.
Carmines, E.G., & Stimson, J.A. (1989). Issue evolution: Race and the transformation of American politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
15.
Christensen, R., & Fleer, J.D. (1999). North Carolina: Between Helms and Hunt no majority emerges . In A. P. Lamis (Ed.), Southern politics in the 1990s (pp. 81-106). Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press.
16.
Clarke, S.E. (1981). A political perspective on population change in the South . In D. L. Jr. Poston, & R. H. Weller (Eds.), The population of the South: Structure and change in social demographic context (pp. 227-267). Austin: University of Texas Press.
17.
Colburn, D.R. (2007). From yellow dog Democrats to red state Republicans: Florida and its politics since 1940. Gainesville: University Press of Florida.
18.
Converse, P.E. (1972). Change in the American electorate. In A. Campbell & P. E. Converse (Eds.), The human meaning of social change (pp. 263-338). New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
19.
Cosman, B. (1966). Five states for Goldwater: Continuity and change in southern presidential voting patterns. Tuscaloosa: University of Alabama Press.
Fleer, J.D., Lowery, R.C., & Prysby, C.L. (1988). Political change in North Carolina. In R. H. Swansbrough & D. M. Brodsky (Eds.), The South’s new politics: Realignment and dealignment (pp. 94-111). Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.
22.
Gimpel, J.G., & Schuknecht, J.E. (2001). Interstate migration and electoral politics. Journal of Politics, 63, 207-231.
23.
Gimpel, J.G., & Schuknecht, J.E. (2004). Patchwork nation: Sectionalism and political change in American politics. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
24.
Green, D., Palmquist, B., & Schickler, E. (2002). Partisan hearts and minds: Political parties and the social identities of voters. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
25.
Green, J.C., Kellstedt, L.A., Smidt, C.E., & Guth, J.L. (2009). The soul of the South: Religion and southern politics in the new millennium. In C. S. Bullock , III & M. J. Rozell (Eds.), The new politics of the old South (pp. 283-303). Lanham, MD : Rowman & Littlefield.
26.
Hayes, D., & McKee, S.C. (2008). Toward a one-party South?American Politics Research, 36, 3-32.
27.
Hood, M.V., III, Kidd, Q., & Morris, I.L. (2004). The reintroduction of Elephas Maximus to the southern United States: The rise of Republican state parties, 1960 to 2000. American Politics Research, 32, 68-101.
28.
Judis, J.B., & Teixeira, R. (2002). The emerging Democratic majority. New York: Scribner.
29.
Key, V.O., Jr. (1949). Southern politics in state and nation. New York: A. A. Knopf.
30.
Knuckey, J.O. (2006, March). Age and the partisanship of native southern whites: An update. Paper presented at the biennial meeting of the Citadel Symposium on Southern Politics, Charleston, SC.
31.
Lamis, A.P. (1988). The two-party South. New York: Oxford University Press.
32.
Layman, G.C. (2001). The great divide: Religious and cultural conflict in American and party politics. New York: Columbia University Press.
33.
Lublin, D. (2004). The Republican South: Democratization and partisan change . Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
34.
Luebke, P. (1998). Tar Heel politics 2000. Chapel Hill : University of North Carolina Press.
35.
McKee, S.C., & Hayes, D. (2009). Dixie’s kingmakers: Stability and change in southern presidential primary electorates. Presidential Studies Quarterly , 39, 400-417.
36.
McKee, S.C. (2009). Republican ascendancy in southern U.S. House elections . Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
37.
Moreland, L.W., & Steed, R.P. (2004). Population movement and southern party activists. In J. A. Clark, & C. L. Prysby (Eds.), Southern political party activists: Patterns of conflict and change, 1991-2001 (pp. 45-58). Lexington: University Press of Kentucky.
38.
Parker, S.L. (1988). Shifting party tides in Florida: Where have all the Democrats gone? In R. H. Swansbrough & D. M. Brodsky (Eds.), The South’s new politics: Realignment and dealignment (pp. 22-37). Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.
39.
Perry, M.J. (2003). State-to-state migration flows: 1995 to 2000. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau.
40.
Petrocik, J.R. (1987). Realignment: New party coalitions and the nationalization of the South. Journal of Politics, 49, 347-375.
41.
Phillips, K.P.1969). The emerging Republican majority. New Rochelle, NY: Arlington House.
42.
Polsby, N.W. (2004). How Congress evolves: Social bases of institutional change . Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
43.
Prysby, C. (2009). Tar Heel politics in the twenty-first century. In C. S. Bullock, III & M. J. Rozell (Eds.), The new politics of the old South (pp. 155-179). Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.
44.
Rae, N.C. (1989). The decline and fall of the liberal Republicans: From 1952 to the present. New York: Oxford University Press.
45.
Ready, M. (2005). The Tar Heel state: A history of North Carolina. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.
46.
Scher, R.K. (1997). Politics in the new South: Republicanism, race and leadership in the twentieth century. Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe.
47.
Sly, D.F. (1981). Migration. In D. L. Poston, Jr. & R. H. Weller (Eds.), The population of the South: Structure and change in social demographic context (pp. 109-136). Austin: University of Texas Press.
48.
Stanley, H.W. (1988). Southern partisan changes: Dealignment, realignment or both? Journal of Politics, 50, 64-88.
49.
Stanley, H.W. (2006). The South and the presidency. In L. W. Moreland & R. P. Steed (Eds.), Writing southern politics (pp. 219-239). Lexington: University Press of Kentucky.
50.
Stanley, H.W., & Castle, D.S. ( 1988). Partisan changes in the South: Making sense of scholarly dissonance. In R. H. Swansbrough & D. M. Brodsky (Eds.), The South’s new politics: Realignment and dealignment (pp. 238-252). Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.
51.
Thornton, D.W. (2009, April). Red, blue, or something else entirely? The crucial role of North Carolina in the elections of 2008. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association , Chicago, IL.
52.
Tomz, M., Wittenberg, J., & King, G. (2003). CLARIFY: Software for interpreting and presenting statistical results (Version 2.1). Stanford University, University of Wisconsin, and Harvard University. Retrieved January 5, 2010, from http://gking.harvard.edu/stats.shtml
53.
Topping, J.C., Jr., Lazarek, J.R., & Linder, W.H. (1966). Southern Republicanism and the new South. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
54.
Vercellotti, T. (2008). How southern is the Old North State? Public opinion in North Carolina. In C. A. Cooper & H. G. Knotts (Eds.), The new politics of North Carolina (pp. 38-58). Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.
55.
Wolfinger, R., & Arseneau, R.B. (1978). Partisan change in the South, 1952-1976. In L. Maisel & J. Cooper (Eds.), Political parties: Development and decay (pp. 179-210). Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
56.
Wolfinger, R., & Hagen, M.G. (1985). Republican prospects: Southern comfort. Public Opinion, 8, 8-13.
