This article investigates whether the outcomes of National Football League (NFL) preseason games are predictors of regular season NFL performance. Using data from the 2002-2010 NFL seasons, the empirical analysis does not find that either a team’s preseason winning percentage or a win in the third preseason game is a significant indicator of the team’s regular season winning percentage. This result contrasts with previous findings that preseason game performance did provide an indicator of regular season performance for the 1970-1991 NFL seasons. Preliminary evidence is presented that suggests that the change in the importance of preseason performance in predicting regular season performance started around 1994.
AhlburgD. A.DworkinJ. B. (1991). Player compensation in the National Football League. In StaudoharP. D.MonganJ. A. (Eds.), The business of professional sports (pp. 61–70). Champaign: University of Illinois Press.
BoulierB. L.SteklerH. O. (2003). Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games. International Journal of Forecasting, 19, 257–270.
4.
CraigL. A.HallA. R. (1994). Trying out for the team: Do exhibitions matter? Evidence from the National Football League. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89, 1091–1099.
5.
DonihueM. R.FindlayD. W.NewberryP. W. (2007). An analysis of attendance at Major League Baseball spring training games. Journal of Sports Economics, 8, 39–61.
6.
ESPN. (2012). ESPN.com. Retrieved March 2012, from ESPN.com: http://espn.go.com
7.
FordB. (2010, August 15). The games, practice; the money, real. The Philadelphia Inquirer, p. E1.
GoldbergJ. B. (2007, Spring). No tying in football? Reexamining the sale of NFL tickets. Sports Lawyers Journal, 14, 1–28.
10.
HadleyL.PoitrasM.RuggieroJ.KnowlesS. (2000). Performance evaluation of National Football League teams. Managerial and Decision Economics, 21, 63–70.
11.
MihocesG. (2010, August 27). Preseason week 3 closest to the real thing. USA Today, p. 1C.
12.
National Football League. (2001-2010). NFL Record and Fact Book. New York, NY: Time Inc. Home Entertainment.
13.
SapraS. G. (2008). Evidence of betting market intraseason efficiency and interseason overreaction to unexpected NFL team performance 1988-2006. Journal of Sports Economics, 9, 488–503.
14.
SolomonG. (2003, September 6). Tagliabue pondering schedule; Study may be sought on an 18-game schedule. The Washington Post, p. D1.
15.
StairA.DayA.MizakD.NeralJ. (2008). The factors affecting team performance in the NFL: Does off-field conduct matter?Economics Bulletin, 26, 1–9.
16.
TorontoStar. (2008, November 3). Like it or not, 18-game NFL season is in the works. Toronto Star, p. S03.
17.
VroomanJ. (2012). The economic structure of the NFL. In QuinnK. (Ed.), The Economics of the National Football League: The State of the Art (pp. 7–31). New York, NY: Springer Science + Business Media, LLC.
18.
WhiteH. (1980). A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48, 817–838.
19.
WooldridgeJ. M. (2002). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. Cambridge: MIT Press.
20.
ZippJ. (1997). Spring training. In NollR.ZimbalistA. (Ed.), Sports, jobs, and taxes: The economics impact of sports teams and stadiums (pp. 427–481). Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
