Line Movements and Market Timing in the Baseball Gambling Market

Abstract

This article analyzes betting strategies based on line movements in Major League Baseball and tests for possible evidence of informed bettors. Overall line movements from open to close, first movements, and last movements are studied for the 2003 season for a Las Vegas sportsbook and for the 2006 season for an offshore sportsbook. In the Las Vegas sportsbook, betting against first movements to favorites and betting with last movements to underdogs generates statistically significant profits. The offshore sportsbook appears to be efficient, with the only strategy generating positive, but insignificant returns, being betting against first movements to favorites. Differences between the offshore and Las Vegas betting markets are discussed.

Keywords

efficient markets sports gambling

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