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Abstract

Background

Playing the lottery is considered a public health concern in many countries due to financial losses associated with it, but also due to other harmful health and social problems.

Focus of the article

Informed by both theory and practice, this article focuses on developing lottery ticket warning messages targeting players harmed by excessive spending to promote sustainable behavior change.

Research Question

What should be communicated in lottery ticket warning messages targeting people at risk to facilitate behavior change and maintain it?

Approach

We bridge the gap between theory and practice and illustrate how theoretical models and current communications can shape messages. Specifically, we identify and examine lottery ticket warning messages and analyze their relative congruence to prevailing theories to assess the potential effectiveness of the messages and to recommend warning labels for lottery tickets. In addition, we incorporate knowledge used by cognitive psychologists in counselling to create warnings more likely to motivate and sustain behavior change.

Importance to the Social Marketing Field

Merging academic theory with existent communications ensures better knowledge translation and potentially better outcomes. Introducing verified techniques from Cognitive Behavior Therapy into social marketing initiatives could be a step forward into triggering behavior change.

Methods

A literature review was conducted to identify and select theoretical models appropriate to guide communications for lottery tickets harmful consumption. Searches were conducted to identify initiatives aiming at persuading and helping at-risk individuals to change their behavior in a healthy manner. Social marketing campaign messages were then compared with theoretical paradigms to identify ways in which campaign messages could be improved.

Results

Results show campaign messages were relatively consistent with some aspects of the theoretical models. Warning messages provide information that is relevant to the target audience and describe the severity and vulnerability of irresponsible consumption. They also attempt to decrease perceived costs and increase perceived self-efficacy in a variety of ways. Some also attempt to modify cognitive distortions the audience has in respect to chances of winning. However, initiatives should also increase consumers’ perceptions of the response-efficacy by emphasizing their agency, and further enhance individuals’ perception of self-efficacy by incorporating strategies from the Cognitive Model.

Recommendations for Research and Practice

Academics and practitioners can build on each other’s knowledge on an ongoing basis. By making it default to always consider both theory and practice, initiatives are likely to become more effective. Managers responsible for developing warning messages and implementing social marketing campaigns can experiment with the various theoretical approaches to determine which are comparatively more effective for their situations.

Limitations

Future research is needed to test the comparative effectiveness of these theories as a basis of creating persuasive warning messages.

Keywords

lottery tickets protection motivation theory integrated model for social marketers the cognitive model gambling

Introduction

Individuals have a variety of gambling options, from lotteries to sports betting to electronic gambling machines, all of which are easily accessible. People gamble for a variety of reasons, including enjoyment, excitement, social interaction, special treatment from casinos, and the challenge of mastering gaming skills and strategies. Individuals, who make up the majority of casino gamblers, are often referred as recreational gamblers. In contrast, problem gamblers have different motivations for gambling, such as escaping stress and frustration, the illusion of control, the desire to win money, and chasing losses (Dong & Potenza, 2014; Kaiwai et al., 2009).

While gambling is often seen as a harmless form of entertainment, the financial impact can be significant. For example, in Australia, individuals lost AUD 25 billion on gambling in the 2018/19 period (Pitt et al., 2022; Queensland Government Statistician’s Office, 2021). Spending on lottery tickets, particularly among those who struggle to afford necessities can be problematic. Research indicates that lower-income Americans spend a disproportionate amount of money on lottery tickets. For instance, individuals with incomes of $75,000 or more spend an average of $105 annually, while those earning under $30,000 spend about $412 annually (Gibson, 2018). Furthermore, lottery players with household incomes below $10,000 spend approximately $597 annually (Josephson, 2023). Studies also show that the lottery disproportionately attracts lower-income, less-educated, and nonwhite individuals, especially males and those from disadvantaged neighborhoods (Barnes et al., 2011; Wihbey, 2016). In the UK, it is estimated that 1 in 15 individuals experiences harm from gambling and 7% are harmed by someone else’s gambling (Mills et al., 2023). Given that lottery spending, which totals around $250 billion annually worldwide (Kim & Oswald, 2021), is associated with considerable financial losses as well as other adverse effects such as mental health, stress, relationship breakdowns, housing instability, crime, and domestic violence, problematic lottery gambling is a significant public health concern (Pitt et al., 2022).

Due to these negative consequences, governmental and nongovernmental organizations started taking a variety of measures, including issuing warning labels on lottery tickets and encouraging people that engage in reckless or harmful gambling to call a helpline. Research indicates that some individuals have skewed perceptions of the potential benefits relative to costs of buying lottery tickets (Vergura, 2016). While it is challenging to alter the product itself or its distribution methods – since they generate significant revenue – there may be opportunities to shift people’s perceptions of the lottery to be less fanciful. For this reason, the focus of this paper is on the social marketing messaging targeting groups that are disproportionately harmed by lottery gambling (Cohen, 2022; Haisley et al., 2008), mostly individuals that gamble money they don’t have and can’t afford to lose, in hoping for a windfall, and also individuals that have unrealistic expectations about their chance of winning such as the gamblers fallacy.

Research pertaining to warning labels for lottery tickets is scarce and little is known about the effectiveness of such messages (Hassan & Shiu, 2018; Shi et al., 2021). Prior research reported that consumers are unlikely to observe warning messages typically found on lottery tickets and that message presentation needs additional exploration (Horn et al., 2021; Li et al., 2019). Evaluations of several social marketing programmes found various levels of recall of campaign messages, use of campaign websites and calls to helplines, and provided little evidence of reductions of gambling-related harm (Gambleaware, 2023; Kaiwai et al., 2009; van Schalkwyk et al., 2021). The purpose of this study is to explore how warning messages can be developed and/or improved by using insights from both theory and practice. The goal is to use theory and practice to design persuasive messages targeting people at risk of overspending on lottery tickets, to persuade and help them to spend less (or nothing) on lottery tickets.

A key contribution is the adaptation of the Cognitive Model and the Cognitive Behavior Therapy (Beck, 1964, 2019, 2022) in social marketing campaign communications and warning labels. Considering the unaffordability of therapy for many individuals, borrowing from this theoretical knowledge and adapting it to fit online communications and warning labeling is significant.

Our inquiry follows prior research using theory and practice to modify or create persuasive messages, encouraging more responsible consumer behavior in at-risk areas of consumption (Levit & Cismaru, 2020; Manikam & Russell-Bennett, 2016). Literature and practice suggest several theories or models that may be appropriate to guide the design of warning messages on lottery tickets: Protection Motivation Theory (PMT; Rogers, 1975, 1983), the Integrated Model for Social Marketers (IMSM; Cismaru et al., 2008), which combines PMT with the Transtheoretical Model of Change (stages of change model; TTM; Prochaska et al., 1994) and social marketing principles (Andreasen, 1995), the Cognitive Model (Beck, 1964, 2019, 2022), and Prospect Theory (Brennan et al., 2014; Kahneman & Tversky, 1984). The Protection Motivation Theory and the Transtheoretical Model of Change are used extensively to guide social marketing campaign development (Hastings & Domegan, 2017). The IMSM, adds marketing insights particularly referring to the audience segmentation, and prospect theory and the cognitive model, show specifically how to deal with distorted beliefs, an extremely important issue in the context of lottery ticket gambling.

Next, we present relevant theoretical models and their components. Then we present some information from the initiatives trying to help people who overspend on lottery tickets. Further, we use insights from these theories, studies, and existent online communications pertaining to lotteries to propose additional effective warning messages targeting individuals that are involved in excessive lottery playing. The utilisation of warning mechanisms and labels on gambling products is one of the recommended ways to tackle harmful gambling (Kaiwai et al., 2009).

Background and Literature

Fear appeals

Fear theories such as PMT (Rogers, 1975, 1983) have been used to warn individuals about issues that may bring them harm (including gambling, as shown by Munoz et al., 2010) but also to trigger behavior change by providing recommendations meant to avert the threat. Indeed, many people consider changing their behavior only when they feel vulnerable to a potential loss or harm (Floyd et al., 2000; Milne et al., 2000; Munoz et al., 2010). Consequently, communications and warning labels designed to persuade people at risk to abstain from buying lottery tickets should attempt to increase perceived vulnerability and severity (when warranted). In the case of lottery ticket purchases, warning signs and the negative consequences of excessive purchasing can be depicted, including, financial distress, difficulties in interpersonal relationships, the deterioration of mental and physical health, housing instability, family violence, and crime (Pitt et al., 2022; Shaffer & Korn, 2002).

Furthermore, according to PMT, individuals should also be provided with easy-to-follow recommendations meant to avert the specific threat. These recommendations will involve some costs of adoption. Individuals evaluate these costs and assess if they feel they can follow the recommendations (perceived self-efficacy), but also, they evaluate the likelihood that the adherence to the recommendations will lead to the desired outcome (perceived response-efficacy) (Rogers, 1983). The more confident people are that they can comply with recommendations and that changing their behavior will lead to the desired outcome, the more likely they are to act (Floyd et al., 2000; Milne et al., 2000).

According to PMT and its extension, Extended Parallel Process Model (Popova, 2012; Witte, 1992), an audience can be unaware of the dangers for personal health and the society associated with overconsumption of lottery tickets. In this case, an increase in the awareness of vulnerability and harm should be attempted. The audience can also react with a fear-control response, such as avoidance, rejection, or even hostility. In this case, several marketing strategies might be appropriate including a replacement of the fear tactics with a focus on de-stigmatizing the audience, and increasing self-efficacy, particularly through the recommendation of simple behaviors (Witte, 2013). The audience may be aware and frightened, but cognizant of a solution they believe to be effective in averting the threat and engage in danger control processes, therefore engaging in the desired behavior change (Popova, 2012). Therefore, to effectively trigger behavior change, communications must address both the threat and the coping mechanisms.

Some individuals are motivated to alter their behavior by rewards rather than fear. Donovan and Henley (2003) incorporated a rewards component in PMT, based on the idea that when people decide whether to spend money on lottery tickets, they might consider benefits such as saving money and avoiding relationship problems (Brennan et al., 2014). Other models, such as the Stages of Change Model (TTM; 1994), commonly used in social marketing, highlight these benefits of change as key drivers of behavior modification. Additionally, the Positive Psychology Theory (Seligman et al., 2005) emphasizes that happiness and wellbeing are crucial for sustaining behavior change. Therefore, it is important to frame warning messages more positively and to explore alternative approaches to guide communications aiming at helping individuals affected by excessive lottery tickets consumption.

Social Marketing (Andreasen, 1995) often uses the Stages of Change Model (TTM; 1994) to shift the focus from fear toward assisting individuals that need help to change their unhealthy behavior by emphasizing the benefits of changing. The Integrated Model for Social Marketers (IMSM, Cismaru et al., 2008) expands our understanding of behavior change by incorporating knowledge from psychology, with the Stages of Change model and social marketing, in addition to PMT.

Social Marketing, the Transtheoretical Model of Change (TTM), and the Integrated Model for Social Marketers (IMSM)

Powell and Tapp (2009) and Gordon and Moodie (2009) proposed applying social marketing strategies to the context of gambling. They highlighted key elements such as segmentation and targeting, customer research and orientation, a focus on behaviour, the application of behavioural theory, and an emphasis on the exchange of costs and benefits to the consumer. They also discussed competition and the marketing mix. In the context of lottery tickets, the marketing mix includes the product as the value proposition offered to the public (e.g., the lottery tickets and the associated hotline) and the costs incurred by the target group to adopt the recommendations (barriers to overcome). The place component involves channel selection, which can encompass both promotional strategies and distribution methods. Channels can include, Tv, Radio, out-of-home advertising such as football stadiums, podcasts, press, social media, paid media partnership, partner toolkit, and public relations activities (Gambleaware, 2023). An effective campaign requires also a message grounded in theory (Levit & Cismaru, 2020). Promotion may involve messages with fear appeals, such as warning labels that highlight the severe consequences for individuals at risk, like those with low incomes. For promotion, communication efforts could include websites, posters, or e-mails informing the public about support group meetings, including their dates, times, and locations. Hotlines should be promoted as safe, confidential, and available 24 hours at no charge. Providing such hotlines, reduces perceived costs, as suggested by PMT, thereby significantly influencing behaviour change. Additionally, warning labels can illustrate how many people successfully managed their spending with help, addressing the concept of response efficacy from PMT.

Social marketing also emphasizes that segmenting audiences is an excellent way to ensure that messages and interventions are more effective if they are tailored to a more specific audience (Campo et al., 2012; Slater et al., 2006). As well, an essential feature of social marketing is the requirement to identify the psychographics associated with a particular behavior in the priority audience (Andreasen, 1995) and how that audience perceives the barriers and benefits of practicing the behavior knowledge, perceptions, beliefs, attitudes, and values of those whose behavior we hope to change (Finnell & John, 2017; Lee & Kotler, 2016). Segmenting the audience into meaningful groups using theories or models as frameworks makes it more likely to appeal to different groups in a relevant way since the specific determinants that are relevant to a subgroup can be addressed in tailored messaging (Luntz, 2007; Silk et al., 2005). Literature provides suggestions of how to segment the audience in the context of lottery tickets overconsumption based on several models.

For example, TTM posits that health behavior change is a process that involves the individuals progress through six stages of change: precontemplation (the audience may be aware of the issue, but not interested yet to change behavior), contemplation (evaluating the personal relevance of the recommended behavior), preparation (decided to act and trying to put together measures needed to carry out the recommended behavior), action (give it a go), maintenance, and termination (committed to the behavior) (Hastings, 2007). Different messages are appropriate to target people found in different readiness of change. Lynch et al. (2016) segments the audience based on TTM in nonintenders (precontemplation) and intenders (those in contemplation, preparation, and action).

Di Clemente et al. (2000) provide a set of stages of change for stopping problematic behavior in respect to gambling once it has become established as a habituated behavior. They state that pre-contemplators for stopping or modifying gambling behaviors must develop a decisional balance that favors the change (moving toward Contemplation), create, and nurture the commitment and action plan (Preparation), successfully implement this action plan (Action), and finally maintain the behavioral change over a significant period (Maintenance). Many who try will relapse and return to problematic gambling before they are able to successfully change (Marlatt & George, 1984). Therefore, the compulsive gambler must become convinced that the negative consequences associated with the gambling behavior outweigh the positive ones (as posited by PMT also), make a firm decision to stop (commit), develop a viable plan, take effective action, and sustain that action over time (Cismaru et al., 2008). These tasks delineated in the various stages of change should be the focus of any intervention.

IMSM specifies strategies of communication for each stage of change depending on the audience psychographics. It suggests that pre-contemplators may not regularly record the money they spend on gambling (because they may be in a state of denial), or if they do, they do not understand their chances of winning. Even if they know they spend a lot of money on gambling, they feel invulnerable to the increased financial risks.

Consequently, a major objective of a social marketing intervention targeting problem gambling would be to increase perceived vulnerability and severity (described in PMT) by encouraging people to record their expenses and winnings on a regular basis, telling people about their odds of winning and how much gambling spending is prudent in their financial situation, and about the consequences of overspending on gambling.

Furthermore, after people accept that they are overspending on gambling and have a problem (if they have), they gather information about gambling and struggle with the rewards and costs of change. They also fear failure. When they feel they cannot abstain from excessive gambling, fear control processes may take place, often characterized by avoidance or mocking (Witte, 1992, 2013). The objectives of a communication targeting contemplators should be to decrease perceived costs, increase self-efficacy (already addressed by PMT and TTM), increase perceived benefits of change, perceived social influence, and behavioral control. Indeed, individuals should be given confidence in their ability to make changes, but also to commit to quit and to go public about their plans (TTM). Highlighting social consequences in warning messages was also shown to lead to greater perceived vulnerability to the outcome and higher behavioral intentions (Murdock & Rajagopal, 2017).

Messages should also work on increasing confidence in performing the recommended behaviors, as well as overcoming discomfort associated with change. Messages could help people plan their actions, take small steps, and let others know about their intentions to quit gambling. In the action stage, testimonials of people that quit and feel so much better could also be introduced (Cismaru et al., 2008; Prochaska et al., 1994).

During the maintenance stage, accomplished when a healthy amount of money spent on gambling is reached or the continued cessation of gambling, people tend to minimize the dangers and the risks of the unwanted behavior and maximize its appeal. Consequently, warning labels should focus on making people feel rewarded for sustained behavior. Warning labels could remind people about their reasons for changing and their efforts to reach the maintenance stage. People should be encouraged to use relapse as a guide to effective learning (Prochaska et al., 1994).

A recent systematic review of the prevention interventions using social marketing methods on achieving significant behavioral change in the general population found that social marketing interventions may be successful in achieving changes in behavior, although the magnitude of the effect was relatively small overall (Roger et al., 2023). In the context of overspending on lottery tickets, research shows that a big chunk of the audience may have unrealistic expectations about their chances of winning (Vergura, 2016). Hence the need of exploring other theoretical models that might understand and cater this particular target group.

The Cognitive Model, the Cognitive Behavior Therapy, and Prospect Theory

Vergura (2016) conducted a study confirming the significant role of belief in luck and superstition in the development and maintenance of gambling behaviour. Research indicates erroneous cognitions are key factors influencing gambling involvement and pathological gambling. Problem gamblers are more likely to exhibit these distorted beliefs compared to recreational gamblers. Furthermore, beliefs in luck and personal skill are associated with more frequent gambling and increased gambling expenditure (Darke & Freedman, 1997; Tao et al., 2011).

Although PMT, TTM, and the IMSM add significant insight into the understanding of gamblers’ feelings, thoughts, and behavior and provide specific ways to address some of the problems, it does not fully cover the cognitive distortions many individuals have about their chances of winning the lottery. Indeed, influencing the expectancies about the odds and the rewards of gambling as well as the norms of how to behave while gambling can be an effective way to trigger behavior change. More realistic expectations and norms can help individuals in their decisional considerations and lead to decisions to moderate and self-regulate. Therefore, the cognitive model seems to make a lot of sense in the context of warning labels for lottery tickets (American Psychological Association, 2022; Beck, 1964, 2022; Clark, 2010; Humphrey et al., 2022). The cognitive model (which is at the core of the cognitive behavior therapy) considers that problems are based in part on automatic negative thoughts, emotions, situations, physical well-being, and behaviors that can be identified, re-evaluated and changed to create a more healthy and helpful approach to handling daily life (Beck, 2022). It addresses therefore the segment of people that play out of habit but also that have unrealistic expectations about their chance of winning. Studies show web-based cognitive behavior therapy interventions as being successful of increasing well-being in a variety of contexts (Etzelmueller et al., 2020).

Indeed, many people may want to change unhealthy behavior, such as overspending on lottery tickets. However, they are not successful in doing so. Although individual counseling, and other programs can be effective in promoting behavior change, they are expensive, so most people may be left to deal with such issues on their own, or with the help of the information found online or help phone lines. It is likely that online communications and help-phone lines may still fail to lead to actual behavior change due to automatic thinking and habitual behaviors very difficult to change unless more thought is put into the decision-making process. The cognitive model assumes that what one thinks influences how one feels and what one does, and people’s behavior always makes sense once we know what they’re thinking (Beck, 2019). Further, once harmful, distorted, beliefs acquired by individuals that result in self-defeating behavior are identified, one can work on modifying them. Although thoughts may be automatic, spending is NOT; therefore, one can assess problems related to overspending; identify situations and sabotaging thoughts and work on changing them (Beck, 2019).

Elaborating on cognitive distortions, prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1984; McNeil et al., 1982; Simonson & Tversky, 1992; Tversky & Kahneman, 1974, 1981) notes that people are unable to adequately and accurately assess risk. It provides a series of axioms about people’s behavior including:

• The gamblers’ fallacy (the Monte Carlo fallacy) (people are motivated to gamble despite unfavorable odds),

• The disposition effect (people are unwilling to recognize losses but are willing to recognize gains), and

• Loss aversion theory, also called the framing effect (people will avoid losses as a first priority rather than attempt to maximize their gains; framing the outcome as a loss instead of a gain can alter the decision) (Brennan et al., 2014; Vergura, 2016).

Other explanations for people continuing playing the lottery despite overwhelming statistical evidence that the odds of winning are extremely low include:

• Unrealistic optimism concerning probabilities (it is difficult to grasp extremely low probabilities),

• The availability bias (winning a substantial amount of money seems more likely if we have seen or heard about recent winners - we never hear about millions of losers),

• Illusion of control and near misses (“I was so close this time, maybe I’ll land on it next time.”),

• Social traps (“But I can’t give up now, I’ve been playing for 30 years!”), and

• Easy to justify (“I’m only spending a couple bucks and, besides, the money goes to education and helping out older folks in the community.”) (Bennett, 2023; Vergura, 2016).

Communications in the context of overconsumption of lottery tickets can address these axioms and explanations for people continuing to play the lottery when it is harmful for them and encourage them first to put more thought into the process, but also to change their distortive thoughts and become more informed and rational.

Insights from Practice

Methods

The search methodology, inclusion and exclusion criteria, and content analysis were inspired by Cismaru and Wuth (2019) and Nelson et al. (2011). However, we use several behavior change theories in the context of lottery gaming, to evaluate messages, not only one (Noar, 2006; Rundle-Thiele et al., 2017; Sixsmith et al., 2014).

Search Methodology

To identify relevant social marketing warning messages and the use of theory in a lottery context, searches were conducted in the academic databases and on the Internet using Google and other search engines during several months in 2023 and 2024. Key words searched included “warning labels,” “discouraging lottery consumption,” “gambling,” combined with various other terms, such as “campaign,” “social marketing,” “audience,” “theory,” “evaluation,” and “YouTube.” Links were followed from the initially located websites to locate additional websites of interest.

Content Analysis

Nine online communications in English that targeted the ultimate consumer and aimed at promoting more responsible gambling (not necessarily in the context of lottery tickets) were identified and selected for the analysis. They are presented in Appendix 1. One of the authors conducted a content analysis of the websites by scanning messages in their totality and looking for keywords and sentences that helped assess the presence of the information considered by the revised theoretical models to be important predictors of behavioral change. As in previous studies, only information available online was coded and the information presented in this paper is not meant to be exhaustive, but rather to illustrate a variety of ways specific messages can be crafted to encourage a reduction of lottery ticket consumption by vulnerable people.

Findings

Out of the nine initiatives aiming at promoting more responsible gambling selected for the analysis, four are from Canada, two from Australia, two from the UK, and one from USA. In terms of congruence with theories, most initiatives seem to be somehow consistent with PMT, IMSM and/or the cognitive model. Only three had evaluation reports available online. Below we present examples from each.

Fear Appeals in Existent Campaigns

Several organizations attempt to increase perceived vulnerability and severity of the issue for susceptible people. For example, the Western Canada Lottery Corporation (2023) in its brochure titled Playing the Lottery, Learn the Facts. Keep it a Game, states:

“Gambling is entertainment for most people who play, but for some, it can become a problem. If you are concerned about your gambling, or someone else’s, look for the following signs: spending more time or money on gambling than is affordable or planned; borrowing money to gamble; gambling with money meant for essentials like food or rent; neglecting important responsibilities like work, school, or family to gamble; lying about the extent of gambling habits; chasing losses to try and get money back; increasing arguments with friends and family, especially about money issues; increasing debts due to gambling (WCLC, 2023).

Similarly, several organizations address coping variables posited by PMT to promote behavior change. For example, in addition to a free 24-h confidential helpline, the National Council for Problem Gambling (2023) provides a phone number that people can use to text and a link where people can chat. This free help is likely to increase perceptions of self-efficacy. As are motivating messages such as “Show gambling who’s boss” by the Government of Western Australia (2023). To further increase response and self-efficacy, messages could provide credible and persuasive testimonials such as the following by the Gambling Commission (2023):

Adam’s story: “I never thought I had a problem. I didn't want to be seen like a gambler and addict. But they’re all the things that I was...I think now knowing that I can pick up the phone to someone, or I could reach out to someone and get help straight away…it might have been easier.”

An evaluation report of Gambleaware (2023) specifies that survey metrics and comments on social media with many sharing their own experiences of gambling harm under posts shows that testimonials resonate with the audience. More ways to increase the perception of coping variables are presented below.

Social Marketing, TTM, and the Integrated Model for Social Marketers Depicted in Existent Campaigns

All communications seem to be consistent or at least partially consistent with social marketing principles. Most address the denial stage from TTM (that overlaps with the threat component in PMT), therefore targeting nonintenders, but also move toward helping people acting and maintaining the recommended behavior. For example, one initiative that seems to address the denial issue in the context of gambling is by the New York Council on Problem Gambling (2023) which states:

“Gambling is a popular form of entertainment, and for many people, it is a spontaneous social activity. Though small amounts of money may be lost, for many people, gambling has few negative effects. But for some people, gambling can have devastating consequences. For some, gambling can lead to financial problems, broken relationships, losses of property, careers and reputations, and much more. Problem gambling happens throughout our communities. Some of us just don’t know it yet.”

Targeting precontemplators and contemplators, the Western Canada Lottery Corporation (2023) mentions “look at gambling as entertainment, like catching a concert or a movie, not a way to make money.” Therefore, the advice is to keep the budget for lottery tickets within the budget for entertainment. The same tip and others are provided several communications, including the Atlantic Lottery Corporation (2023):

“Set a budget and stick to it, set a time limit and stick to it, maintain a gambling journal, avoid gambling when intoxicated, take frequent breaks, balance gambling with other forms of entertainment.”

Several evaluation reports listed in Appendix 1 primarily focus on the messaging aspect of the initiatives. However, Gambleaware (2023) stands out by providing extensive information on other components of the marketing mix, such as distribution channels.

The Cognitive Model and Prospect Theory Depicted in Existent Campaigns

Consistent with the cognitive model and other theories, several initiatives encourage more thought put into the decision-making process while one gambles. For example, the Gambling Commission (2023) states:

“Think about why you are gambling. There are many reasons why people gamble, and these reasons can vary and change over time. It may be helpful to think about why you are gambling, for example, is it a social activity or has it turned into a habit? Think carefully about your motivations to gamble and be aware if these begin to change. Gambling should not be used to improve personal finances. If your main motivation to gamble is to escape debt or if you are using gambling in order to make money quickly, then speak to a financial adviser who will be able to help you with money concerns.”

Regarding cognitive distortions, communications from the Western Canada Lottery Corporation (WCLC) use distortions and present them as myths followed by facts/reality under “Learn the Facts, Keep it a Game” link. For example, in respect to the distortion pertaining to unrealistic expectations about the chance of winning, WCLC states under “Know the Odds”:

“The overall odds of winning a prize, such as a free ticket or a cash prize, vary for all lottery games. For LOTTO 6/49, your odds of winning any prize are one in 6.6 per $3 play, while your chance of winning the jackpot is 1 in almost 14 million.”

This type of information can be used to create more realistic expectations about one’s chances of winning the lottery. Similarly, addressing the availability bias, WCLC states:

“Real people do win major prizes and large jackpots and reading their stories in the media can be exciting. However, keep in mind that these people have beaten extremely long odds to win that prize.”

Addressing the easy-to-justify distortion, WCLC provides the following tip to keep gambling fun:

“Set a limit – stay within it. Before you buy lottery tickets, set a limit on how much you want to spend. Track your spending over time to make sure you’re not spending more than you can afford. For example, if you buy a LOTTO 6/49 ticket with one selection and EXTRA ‘entered’ for every draw, your cost is $416 a year.”

Several other communications address these types of distortions (see Appendix 1).

At the same link, the WCLC presents several myths, followed by facts that illustrate how cognitive distortions might be addressed to further lead to behavior change. For example, some people might think that: “I can improve my chances of winning if I play “smart”. The fact stated by WCLC is:

“Your personal strategies, superstitions or “lucky” rituals have no impact on the outcome of a game. Due to the random nature of the draw, it’s impossible to predict what combination of numbers will be drawn or which SCRATCH ‘N WIN ticket in the retailer’s display will be a winner.”

An evaluation report of “Know Tour Odds” campaign by the Tasmanian Government (2022) shows several insights about their messaging, notably respondents were most likely to recall and found the following messages clear: “the odds favors the house”, “the more you gamble, the more you lose”, “the house/machine always wins”, “the house edge/odds are stacked against you”, “you are unlikely to win/likely to lose/don’t always win”, and “over time you will lose overall/even after small wins/you can’t win”.

Warning Labels for Lottery Tickets

Based on the insights provided above from both theory and practice, we propose appropriate warning labels in Table 1.

Table 1.

Warning Labels Based on Theory and Practice.

Warning Messages based on Protection Motivation Theory The focus is on increasing perceptions of vulnerability and severity and providing specific recommendations to quit and coping information.	Explanation	Target Audience
1. Warning: Playing the lottery can lead to financial difficultie dslbs. If gambling is causing you money problems, stop now to reduce your risk of financial distress. For help and more information, visit www.xxxxx or call the problem gambling help line at 1-800-xxx-xxxx. Available 24/7. Toll free.	Heightens awareness of vulnerability and severity. It offers clear recommendations for quitting, highlights the benefits of cessation (response efficacy), and boosts self-efficacy. Additionally, it reduces barriers by providing free, accessible help through various channels.	Nonintenders (precontemplation) People who are in denial
2. If gambling is harming your relationships, consider quitting today to improve them. You can stop, and we’re here to help. Visit www.xxxxx or call 1-800-xxx-xxxx for support.	Uses a gentle approach to inquiring about any issues one may be facing. Recommends quitting and outlines the benefits of doing so. Enhances self-efficacy and reduces barriers by offering free, accessible support.	Nonintenders (precontemplation) People who are in denial
3. Many people experience significant stress and negative impacts on their physical health due to gambling. Quit gambling now to feel better, physically, and mentally. You can stop, and we are here to help. Visit www.xxxxx or call 1-800-xxx-xxxx for support.	Uses a gentle approach to address potential issues, while reducing stigma. Increases awareness of vulnerability and severity. Recommends quitting and highlights the rewards and benefits of doing so. Boosts self-efficacy and lowers barriers by offering free, accessible support.	Nonintenders (precontemplation) People who are in denial
4. Warning: PLAYING THE LOTTERY MIGHT NEGATIVELY IMPACT YOU AND YOUR community. Excessive gambling can lead to financial difficulties, including problems with housing and reliance on government support. If you feel vulnerable, consider quitting now to reduce your risk of financial hardship. You can quit, and we are here to help. Visit www.xxxxx or call 1-800-xxx-xxxx for support.	Aims to increase perceived vulnerability and severity by highlighting various consequences, including potential harm to the community. It demonstrates the benefits of quitting, boosts self-efficacy, and lowers costs by offering free help.	Nonintenders (precontemplation) People who are in denial
5. Is playing the lottery causing you stress? Are you ready to quit buying lottery tickets? Learn more at www.xxxxx or call the problem gambling help line at 1-800-xxx-xxxx for 24-h, toll free support.	Uses a gentle approach to inquire if there are any issues. Asks if one is considering quitting and offers free help and support.	Nonintenders (precontemplation) People who are in denial
Warning messages based on the integrated model for social marketers the focus shifts on promoting behavior change.
1. Warning: PLAYING THE LOTTERY MAY DAMAGE YOUR relationships. If you feel at risk, make a firm decision to stop today. Call the 24-h free help line at 1-800-xxx-xxxx, text 1-800-xxx-xxxx, or chat at www.xxxxx for support. You’ll receive help to develop a practical plan, take effective action, and maintain it over time. You can quit, and we’re here to assist you.	Increases perceived vulnerability and severity, encouraging a commitment to quit and act. Provides support to create a viable plan, implement effective steps, and maintain progress over time. Enhances self-efficacy by focusing on actionable strategies, in contrast to the PMT approach, which emphasizes understanding threats.	Intenders (contemplation, preparation, and action)
2. Keep a record of how much you spend and win each time you play the lottery, gamble, or place a bet. If you’re losing significant amounts of money, consider quitting to avoid financial distress. Remember, you can quit, and we are here to help. Visit www.xxxxx or call 1-800-xxx-xxxx for support.	Offers specific guidance on how to act and encourages deeper consideration in the decision-making process. Increases self-efficacy and reduces costs by providing free help.	Intenders (contemplation, preparation, and action)
3. View gambling as entertainment, like attending a concert or watching a movie, rather than a way to make money. Create a budget that includes lottery spending as part of your monthly entertainment expenses. For more information, visit www……., text 1-800-xxx-xxxx, or chat online at www.xxxxx.	Specifies that playing the lottery is an expense that should be included in one’s budget. Increases self-efficacy and reduces costs by providing free help.	Intenders (preparation, and action)
4. Warning: PLAYING THE LOTTERY MAY HARM YOUR FAMILY LIFE, STRAIN YOUR RELATIONSHIPS, AND IMPACT YOUR HOME. Reach out to your family and friends and let them know you want to quit gambling. Call the 24-h free help line at 1-800-xxx-xxxx now. Many people have successfully quit gambling and improved their relationships - you can do it, too!	Attempts to increase perceived vulnerability and severity by highlighting various consequences, including potential harm to close relationships. It encourages individuals to commit to quitting and to share their decision with others. Increases self-efficacy and reduces costs by providing free help.	Intenders (contemplation)
5. Here are a few strategies people have used to reduce gambling or quit entirely: Postpone your gambling decision, engage in alternative activities that don’t harm you, such as calling a friend, going for a walk, or listening to music; join a support group for encouragement or advice; call the problem gambling help line at 1-800-xxx-xxxx for 24-h, toll-free support.	Encourages action by offering specific strategies to avoid spending on lottery tickets. Increases self-efficacy and reduces costs by providing free, accessible help.	Intenders (action)
6. WARNING: QUITTING THE LOTTERY MAY TAKE MORE THAN ONE TRY. Take small steps, plan your actions and don’t hesitate to seek support. Call the 24-h free help line at 1-800-xxx-xxxx, text 1-800-xxx-xxxx, or chat at www.xxxxx anytime for free assistance. You can quit, and it’s worth it.	Addresses the possibility of relapse by encouraging small, manageable steps and careful planning. Enhances self-efficacy and lowers barriers by offering free, accessible help. Emphasizes that quitting is worthwhile and beneficial.	People who want to stop but find it difficult
7. If playing the lottery is causing you harm, commit to quitting today. Visit www.xxxx to learn how others have successfully stopped. For testimonials and more inspiration, check out www………….	Adopts a softer tone to inquire if there are any issues, encourages commitment to quitting, and offers free support to enhance self-efficacy and reduces costs.	Nonintenders
8. WARNING: QUITTING GAMBLING MAY BE CHALLENGING, BUT IT IS WORTH IT! Reflect on your experiences: What strategies have worked well for you? Keep using those. What hasn’t worked? Consider new approaches. Many people have successfully quit, and you can too! For free support, call the problem gambling help line at 1-800-xxx-xxxx, text 1-800-xxx-xxxx, or chat on-line at www.xxxxx any time.	Acknowledges that relapse can happen and highlights the importance of learning from setbacks. Emphasizes the benefits of quitting and provides free support to boost self-efficacy and reduce costs. Reinforces that quitting is worth the effort.	People who want to stop but find it difficult
Warning messages based on the Cognitive Model. The focus is on encouraging reflection and reduce biases.
1. Warning: THE ODDS OF WINNING THE JACKPOT ARE 1 IN NEARLY 29 million. Don’t rely on winning the lottery to solve your problems. If gambling is causing you financial stress, consider quitting to improve your well-being. You can stop, and we are here to help. Visit www.xxxxx or call 1-800-xxx-xxxx for support.	Addresses perceptions of risk and decision- making biases, encourages quitting, and highlights its benefits. Provides free information and support to assist individuals through the process.	People who hope to win to solve their problems
2. Warning: BUYING A LOTTO 6/49 TICKET WITH ONE SELECTION AND EXTRA ‘ENTERED’ FOR EVERY DRAW, COSTS $416 A YEAR. Set a spending limit and stick to it. Learn more facts at https://www.wclc.com/for-players/learn-the-facts.htm	Highlights how much spending adds up, encourages mindful spending, and provides additional information to help people manage their finances better.	People who hope to win to solve their problems
3. Warning: THERE ARE NO WAYS TO PREDICT LOTTERY OUTCOMES. There are no “hot” numbers that are drawn more frequently, and playing the same numbers every week does not increase your chances of winning the jackpot. The odds of winning are just 1 in nearly 29 million. Learn the facts at https://www.wclc.com/for-players/learn-the-facts.htm6.	Addresses cognitive distortions and encourages mindful spending.	People who believe they are more intelligent than others
4. Warning: GAMBLING CAN HAVE SEVERE CONSEQUENCES. Prepare to gamble less, change your mindset, and make lasting improvements. For support, call the problem gambling help line at 1-800-xxx-xxxx, text 1-800-xxx-xxxx, or chat online at www.xxxxx any time. Help is free!	Increases awareness of vulnerability and severity, encourages action and mindful spending, and offers free help.	People who want to stop but find it difficult
5. Asses your gambling habits and the negative consequences they bring. Identify your triggers and learn how to manage them. Download the GAMBLINGLESS app or visit www…. to take proactive steps toward gambling less.	Encourages mindfulness and offers free help.	People who want to stop but find it difficult
6. Warning: GAMBLING CAN HARM YOU. Gambling may bring short-term pleasure, but it can also lead to prolonged guilt and regret. While resisting temptation can be challenging, the sense of accomplishment you’ll feel afterward is worth it. You have the power to quit, and we are here to support you. Visit www.xxxxx or call 1-800-xxx-xxxx for help.	Addresses relapse, boosts self-efficacy, and reduces costs by providing free help.	People who want to stop but find it difficult
7. Warning: GAMBLING CAN HARM YOU! You can choose to gamble as much as you want, or you can maintain financial stability, but you can’t have both. Set a budget for entertainment and stick to it. Remember, cravings don’t endlessly intensify; they always fade, even if you don’t gamble. For support, call the problem gambling help line at 1-800-xxx-xxxx, text 1-800-xxx-xxxx, or chat online at www.xxxxx any. Help is free and available anytime!	States that playing the lottery is a choice and increases self-efficacy by assuring that cravings will always pass.	People who want to stop but find it difficult
8. When you are tempted to gamble but don’t really want to, remember: the moment you shift your focus, the craving often diminishes. Try taking a walk, playing a game on your phone, checking the news, calling a friend, or reading a blog. Cravings don’t just escalate endlessly; they always subside, even if you choose not to gamble.	Provides strategies to avoid spending and increases self-efficacy by assuring that cravings will always pass.	People who want to stop but find it difficult

Info from Health Canada (https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/canada-cigarette-warning-labels-1.6860301), McKenzie-Mohr and Smith (1999), Munoz et al. (2010); NCPG, USA (https://www.ncpgambling.org/help-treatment/national-helpline-1-800-522-4700/), Sasklotteries, Canada (https://www.sasklotteries.ca/home.htm); Shaffer and Korn (2002) cited by Paterson et al. (2021), and https://www.therecoveryvillage.com/process-addiction/compulsive-gambling/how-to-stop-gambling/#:∼:text=Joiningasupportgroupcan,awayfromitforgood was also used to create these warning labels.

Recently Humphrey et al. (2022) used the cognitive model and TTM to inform design, features, and functions of a web-based program. The GamblingLess Web-based modules include getting ready to gamble less, taking action to gamble less, thinking differently to gamble less, gambling less for good, with its afferent topics, was converted into, knowing myself, getting ready (to gamble less), taking control (now), taking actions (that last), managing urges, and change for good. Humphrey et al. (2022) research can inspire to create more appropriate warning labels as needed. We created a few and presented some examples in Table 1. Ultimately, but important, we propose some additional warning labels in Table 1 also based on cognitive model and inspired by Beck (2019). These labels are meant to further increase self-efficacy (present in all models we use in this paper) and numerous other models, because one of the main reasons people keep doing things that harm them – is because they don’t feel they can abstain from it.

Discussion and Conclusions

We use insights from several theoretical models, and existent communications to exemplify how theoretically based and practice-based warning labels for lottery tickets can be framed to increase the chances of vulnerable individuals to adopt and sustain more healthy consumption behaviors. Changing such behaviors is not easy and persuading individuals to change their gambling behavior and helping them is a complex task; for this reason, we felt the need to integrate knowledge from many theories and illustrate existent communications but also propose additional warning messages. Future research is needed to test the comparative effectiveness of these theories as a basis of creating persuasive warning messages.

Audience segmentation is at the core of social marketing principles (Slater et al., 2006) and social marketer researchers often segment their audience to be more efficient (Lynch et al., 2016; Warner, 2019). In our context, several audience segments are apparent. Based on the TTM, the audience can be grouped in intenders (those in contemplation, preparation, and action) to change their behaviors and nonintenders (precontemplators) (Lynch et al., 2016). The audience can also be grouped in people in denial (nonintenders), who are not aware of the negative effects of overspending on lottery tickets (with PMT most appropriate to use when targeting them), low-income people who are aware, but hope to win to solve their financial issues, (apply social marketing and the cognitive model), people who believe they are smarter than others and therefore more likely to win, (apply the cognitive model), and people who are aware they are hurt and want to stop but can’t (apply TTM, and the cognitive model). We provided ideas for appropriate messages targeting each of these audiences in Table 1.

Implications for Social Marketing Theory and Practice

In this paper, we have taken commonly used lottery ticket warning messages and offered theoretically derived revisions that should be more effective. Managers charged with developing warning messages and implementing resultant campaigns can experiment with the various theoretical approaches to determine which are comparatively more effective for their situations. Furthermore, managers can use this information to guide development of future messages that should be tested by audience segmentation, to create persuasive initiatives promoting behavior change. Audience testing is crucial to determine which messages resonate most effectively.

We recommend that future warning messages provide information that is relevant to the target audience and that describes the severity and vulnerability of problematic lottery ticket purchases. Future warning messages can increase consumers perceptions of the response-efficacy by emphasizing their agency. Future messages could enhance individuals’ perception of self-efficacy, providing them with reasons to believe they can change their behavior. We recommend that future warning messages decrease consumer perceived costs of behavior change, lowering the perceived barriers to getting help. We also recommend helping individuals harmed by excessive lottery gambling to commit to abstaining, develop a viable plan, take effective action, and sustain that action over time. People should be guided into more thoughtful decision-making, identifying bad habits and distorted beliefs that result in self-defeating behavior, and modifying those distorted beliefs to motivate sustained behavior change. These messages will then be more effective, leading more vulnerable people to control their gambling spending, improve their financial and social relationships, and their general well-being. In addition, factors such as imagery, font, color, and placement can significantly enhance the impact of these messages.

Although this research utilized theory and practice to create effective messages, the work of academics and practitioners is far from being complete. Our research focused on the lack of knowledge and poor attitudes or beliefs, assuming that for some individuals, these factors are the primary reason for not changing behavior. In addition to information, several other factors should be considered to change behavior, including motivation, incentives, new products, a supportive environment, and legislation.

Most importantly, beyond messaging, it’s crucial to fully understand and address issues related to the 4 Ps as well as competition. This research primarily focused on website messaging, but questions remain about how to create a compelling product that includes educational materials, counselling services, or other support resources like hotlines or support groups. The place component involves analyzing where lottery tickets are sold and considering changes to these locations to help at-risk individuals make less impulsive decisions. Literature indicates that online purchasing is a major concern, and the place also encompasses the availability of campaign messages and resources beyond websites and social media, such as schools, malls, gas stations, stadiums, and community centers. For promotion, strategies could include traditional advertising, social media campaigns, community events, and partnerships with influencers, including sport celebrities. The price aspect requires an understanding of both the perceived and actual costs of gambling, and addressing barriers to accessing support. Support can take various forms including free and confidential face-to-face counselling, peer-to-peer support, on-line forums, and resources tailored to specific minorities and languages. Exploring alternative approaches, such as a lottery-like savings account, could also be beneficial. By integrating these elements, a comprehensive campaign can be developed to address overspending on lottery tickets and support individuals in making informed, healthier choices. Social marketers should learn from successful competitors and adopt effective tactics to deliver accurate information to potential consumers. Finally, conducting evaluations and making campaign evaluation reports readily accessible online can enhance knowledge translation and advance efforts to improve individuals’ well-being.

Footnotes

Declaration of Conflicting Interests

The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Funding

The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

ORCID iDs

Magdalena Cismaru

Walter Wymer

Appendix

Author Biographies

Magdalena Cismaru’s research focuses on social marketing and health decision-making. She explores effective strategies to help individuals become healthier, safer, and more informed. Her work has been published in various journals and presented at numerous international conferences.

Professor Walter Wymer scholarly work includes ten books, and numerous journal articles and conference presentations. His primary areas of research include brand management topics, nonprofit marketing, social marketing, brand strenght/loyalty, higher education marketing, and scale development.

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Using Theory and Practice to Develop Lottery Ticket Warning Messages as a Means of Promoting More Responsible Gambling

Abstract

Background

Focus of the article

Research Question

Approach

Importance to the Social Marketing Field

Methods

Results

Recommendations for Research and Practice

Limitations

Keywords

Introduction

Background and Literature

Fear appeals

Social Marketing, the Transtheoretical Model of Change (TTM), and the Integrated Model for Social Marketers (IMSM)

The Cognitive Model, the Cognitive Behavior Therapy, and Prospect Theory

Insights from Practice

Methods

Search Methodology

Content Analysis

Findings

Fear Appeals in Existent Campaigns

Social Marketing, TTM, and the Integrated Model for Social Marketers Depicted in Existent Campaigns

The Cognitive Model and Prospect Theory Depicted in Existent Campaigns

Warning Labels for Lottery Tickets

Discussion and Conclusions

Implications for Social Marketing Theory and Practice

Footnotes

Declaration of Conflicting Interests

Funding

ORCID iDs

Appendix

Author Biographies

References