In this article, we develop a new explanation of the extremely low fertility rate in Spain (a total fertility rate below 1.3) in terms of the influence of the public budget on the postponement of family formation. We show that this postponement has dramatically decreased the ‘potential fertility’ of the Spanish population. We interpret the postponement of family formation as an adaptation to economic uncertainties due to a distribution of the public budget that favors the older population and goes against new families and new children. We propose that this distribution of the public budget is stable because of the electoral incentives provided by the distribution of public expenditure across the generations. Policy implications of this approach are discussed.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AdseraA. (2004): “Changing Fertility Rates in Developed Countries. the Impact of Labor Market Institutions”, Journal of Population Economics, 17, pp. 17–43.
2.
AhnN. and MiraP. (2002): “A Note on the Changing Relationship between Fertility and Female Employment Rates in Developed Countries”, Journal of Population Economics, 15, pp. 667–682.
3.
BrewsterK.L. and RindfusR.R. (2000): “Fertility and Women's Employment in Industrialized Nations”, Annual Review of Sociology, 26, pp. 271–296.
4.
CoaleA. (1986): “The Decline of Fertility in Europe since the Eighteenth Century as a Chapter in Demographic History”, in CoaleA. and S.C. Watkins (eds.), The Decline of Fertility in Europe, Princeton: Princeton University Press, pp. 1–30.
5.
ColomM.C.MartínezR., and MolésM.C.(2002): “Un análisis de las decisiones de formación de hogar, tenencia y demanda de servicios de viviendas de los jóvenes españoles”, Moneda y Crédito, 215, pp. 199–223.
6.
FerreraM. (1996): “The ‘Southern Model’ of Welfare in Social Europe”, Journal of European Social Policy, 6, pp. 17–37.
7.
FinaLl., MeixideA., and TohariaL. (1989): “Reregulating the Labor Market amid an Economic and Political Crisis: 1975–1986”, in RosenbergS. (ed.), The State and the Labor Market, New York, Plenum Press.
8.
GarridoL. (1993a): Las dos biografías de la mujer en España, Madrid: Women Institute.
9.
GarridoL. (1993b): “La familia estatal: el control fiscal de la natalidad”, in GarridoL. and E. Gil-Calvo (coords.), Estrategias Familiares, Madrid, Alianza Universidad.
10.
GarridoL. (1996): “La temporalidad: ¿pacto intergeneracional o imposición?, in La duración del contrato de trabajo, Madrid: Economic and Social Council of Madrid, pp. 47–90.
11.
GarridoL. and RequenaM. (1996): La emancipación de los jóvenes en España, Ministry of Labor, Youth Institute, Madrid.
12.
González-TempranoA. (2003): “El Estado de Bienestar en España en los años noventa”, chapter in A. González-Temprano (dir.), La Consolidación del Estado del Bienestar en España, Madrid, CES, Spanish Economic and Social Council.
13.
GoughI. (1996) “Social Assistance in Southern Europe”, South European Society & Politics Vol. 1 (1), pp. 1–23.
14.
Hajnal, (1965): “European Marriage Patterns in Perspective”, in GlassD.V. and EversleyD.E.C. (eds.), Population in History, London: Arnold, pp. 101–143.
15.
HoldsworthC. and Irazoqui-SoldaM. (2002): “First Housing Moves in Spain: An Analysis of Leaving Home and First Housing Acquisition”, European Journal of Population, Vol. 18, 1–19.
16.
INE (2003): “Movimiento Natural de la Población. Datos avance 2002”, press note of the Spanish Statistical Office, 2003–06-17, available online: http://www.ine.es/prensa/np285.pdf (last access: 2004–03-29).
17.
KohlerH.P. (2001): Fertility and Social Interactions: An Economic Perspective, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
18.
KohlerH.P.BillariF.C. and OrtegaJ.A. (2001): “Towards a Theory of Lowest-Low Fertility”, MPDIR Working Paper WP 2001–032, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock.
19.
TohariaL. and MaloM.A. (2000): “The Spanish Experiment: Pros and Cons of the Flexibility at the Margin”, chapter in Esping-AndersenG. and ReginiM. (eds.), Why Deregulate Labor Markets?, Oxford, Oxford University Press, pp. 307–335.
20.
TölkeA. and DiewaldM. (2003): “Insecurities in Employment and Occupational Careers and Their Impact on the Transition to Fatherhood in Western Germany”, Demographic Research, Vol. 9, 41–68 (available online at http://www.demographic-research.org)
21.
ValleV. (1996): “La Hacienda Pública de la Democracia Española”, Papeles de Economía Española, 68, pp. 2–26.
