Issue Polarization and Opinion Expression: A Latent Variable Approach to Nonresponse and Misreporting

Abstract

In the extant literature on survey research, studies on expression of opinion mainly focus on psychological factors such as respondents’ perceived support for opinions or desirable attitudes based on the spiral of silence theory. In this article, although we develop our arguments based on the logic behind the spiral of silence theory, we emphasize the relationship between objective climate of opinion and opinion expression. Following the spiral of silence theory’s expectation that majority opinions increase while minority opinions drop away over time, we argue that respondents are more likely to report explicit opinions than giving ambiguous responses or nonresponses to issues with higher levels of polarization and that respondents with low response propensity are more likely to express majority opinions. To test our hypotheses, we apply a Bayesian multilevel item response theory model in our analysis of survey data from Taiwan. We find that nonresponses are less likely to occur for polarized issues and lower levels of response propensity are associated with misreporting. An implication of these findings is that individuals are more likely to express their opinions if they are informed about the similar prevalence of alternative perspectives.