In May 2018, a record-breaking number of 86 women candidates ran for parliamentary elections in Lebanon, a country with a power-sharing, consociational, sect-based system that guarantees the representation of 18 legally recognized sects (i.e. religious confessions). Yet, only six women were elected. This article explores whether and how sectarianism trumps gender and support for female candidates in general in vote intention. In doing so, it addresses the interaction between sectarian/ethnic and gender voting in contexts where both identities intersect. This intersection emerges when vote intention is influenced by factors that stem from the patriarchal nature of society and structures of sectarianism, creating interdependent systems of disadvantage. Building on a countrywide pre-electoral survey on the attitudes of young voters in Lebanon, I test ethnic voting and gender-affinity theories and develop fine-grained conceptual links between gender and the wider norms of inclusion and exclusion under sectarian-based political systems in post-conflict countries.
AkhtarPPeaceT (2019) Ethnic Minorities in British Politics: Candidate Selection and Clan Politics in the Labour Party. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies45 (11): 1902–1918.
Arends-TóthJVan de VijverFJ (2009) Cultural Differences in Family, Marital, and Gender-role Values among Immigrants and Majority Members in the Netherlands. International Journal of Psychology44 (3): 161–169.
5.
BadasAStaufferKE (2019) Voting for Women in Nonpartisan and Partisan Elections. Electoral Studies57: 245–255.
6.
BauerNM (2020) The Qualifications Gap: Why Women Must Be Better Than Men to Win Political Office. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
7.
BealeF (1979) Double Jeopardy: To Be Black and Female. In: CadeT (ed.) The Black Woman: An Anthology. New York: New American Library, pp.90–100.
8.
BeckerG (1957) The Economics of Discrimination. Chicago, IL: Chicago University Press.
9.
BensteadLJamalALustE (2015) Is It Gender, Religiosity or Both? A Role Congruity Theory of Candidate Electability in Transitional Tunisia. Perspectives on Politics13: 74–94.
10.
BerghJBjørklundT (2011) The Revival of Group Voting: Explaining the Voting Preferences of Immigrants in Norway. Political Studies59 (2): 308–327.
11.
Beyond Reformand Development (BRD) (2017) Patriarchy and Sectarianism: A Gendered Trap. Baseline of Women in Politics: The Case of Lebanon. Beirut: Hivos International.
12.
BirdKJacksonSDMcGregorRM, et al. (2016) Sex (and Ethnicity) in the City: Affinity Voting in the 2014 Toronto Mayoral Election. Canadian Journal of Political Science49 (2): 359–383.
13.
BloemraadISchönwälderK (2013) Immigrant and Ethnic Minority Representation in Europe: Conceptual Challenges and Theoretical Approaches. West European Politics36 (3): 564–579.
14.
BrooksDJ (2013) He Runs, She Runs: Why Gender Stereotypes Do Not Harm Women Candidates. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
15.
BurdenBCOnoYYamadaM (2017) Reassessing Public Support for a Female President. The Journal of Politics79 (3): 1073–1078.
16.
ButticeMKCaitlinM (2011) Candidate Positioning in Britain. Electoral Studies30 (4): 848––857.
17.
ByrneSMcCullochA (2012) Gender, Representation and Power-Sharing in Post-conflict Institutions. International Peacekeeping19 (5): 565–580.
CameronACMillerDL (2015) A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference. Journal of Human Resources50 (2): 317–372.
20.
CampbellDEWolbrechtC (2006) See Jane Run: Women Politicians as Role Models for Adolescents. The Journal of Politics68 (2): 233–247.
21.
CelisKErzeelS (2017) The Complementarity Advantage: Parties, Representativeness and Newcomers’ Access to Power. Parliamentary Affairs70 (1): 43–61.
22.
CelisKKrookMLMeierP (2011) The Rise of Gender Quota Laws: Expanding the Spectrum of Determinants for Electoral Reform. West European Politics34: 514–530.
23.
CialdiniRBGoldsteinNJ (2004) Social Influence: Compliance and Conformity. Annual Review of Psychology55: 591–621.
24.
CormackLKarlKL (2021) Why Women Earn High Marks: Examining the Role of Partisanship and Gender in Political Evaluations. Politics & Gender18 (3): 768–797.
25.
DancygierR (2010) Immigration and Conflict in Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
DitontoT (2019) Direct and Indirect Effects of Prejudice: Sexism, Information, and Voting Behavior in Political Campaigns. Politics, Groups, and Identities7 (3): 590–609.
28.
DolanK (1998) Voting for Women in the “Year of the Woman.”American Journal of Political Science42: 272–293.
29.
DolanK (2008) Is there a “gender Affinity Effect” in American Politics? Information, Affect, and Candidate Sex in US House Elections. Political Research Quarterly61 (1): 79–89.
30.
DolanK (2014) Gender Stereotypes, Candidate Evaluations, and Voting for Women Candidates: What Really Matters?Political Research Quarterly67 (1): 96–107.
31.
El KhazenF (2003) Political Parties in Postwar Lebanon: Parties in Search of Partisans. The Middle East Journal57 (4): 605–626.
32.
ErzeelSCaluwaertsD (2015) Is It Gender, Ideology or Resources? Individual-Level Determinants of Preferential Voting for Male or Female Candidates. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties25 (3): 265–283.
33.
ESCWA (2021) Multidimensional Poverty in Lebanon (2019–2021): Painful Reality and Uncertain Prospects. Beirut: ESCWA.
34.
EvansGDe GraafND (2013) Political Choice Matters: Explaining the Strength of Class and Religious Cleavages in Cross-national Perspective. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
35.
FisherSDHeathASandersD, et al. (2015) Candidate Ethnicity and Vote Choice in Britain. British Journal of Political Science45 (04): 883–905.
GehaC (2019) The Myth of Women’s Political Empowerment within Lebanon’s Sectarian Power-Sharing System. Journal of Women, Politics & Policy40 (4): 498–521.
38.
Goodyear-GrantETolleyE (2019) Voting for One’s Own: Racial Group Identification and Candidate Preferences. Politics, Groups, and Identities7 (1): 131–147.
39.
GravesSLeeJ (2000) Ethnic Underpinnings of Voting Preference: Latinos and the 1996 U.S. Senate Election in Texas. Social Science Quarterly81 (1): 226–236.
40.
HaddadS (2002) The Political Transformation of the Maronites of Lebanon: From Dominance to Accommodation. Nationalism and Ethnic Politics8 (2): 27–50.
41.
HankivskyOCormierR (2011) Intersectionality and Public Policy: Some Lessons from Existing Models. Political Research Quarterly64: 217–229.
42.
HarikJ (1993) Perceptions of Community and State among Lebanon’s Druze Youth. Middle East Journal47 (1): 41–62.
43.
HolliAMWassH (2010) Gender-based Voting in the Parliamentary Elections of 2007 in Finland. European Journal of Political Research49 (5): 598–630.
44.
HorowitzD (2000) Ethnic Groups in Conflict, 2nd edn.Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
45.
HoussariN (2022) Lebanese Female Candidates Stand Up to Hezbollah, Are Disowned by Families. Arab News, 13April. Available at: https://www.arabnews.com/node/2064046/middle-east (accessed 31 January 2023).
46.
HuddyLTerkildsenN (1993b) Gender Stereotypes and the Perception of Male and Female Candidates. American Journal of Political Science37: 119–147.
47.
HughesMM (2011) Intersectionality, Quotas, and Minority Women’s Political Representation Worldwide. American Political Science Review105 (3): 604–620.
48.
Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) (2020) Percentage of Women in National Parliament (Parline Database). Geneva: IPU.
49.
JacksonMS (2011) Priming the Sleeping Giant: The Dynamics of Latino Political Identity and Vote Choice. Political Psychology32 (4): 691716.
50.
JanssenCErzeelSCelisK (2021) Intersectional Candidate Nomination: How District and Party Factors Shape the Inclusion of Ethnic Minority Men and Women in Brussels. Acta Politica56 (3): 567–586.
51.
JuddCParkB (1988) Out-Group Homogeneity: Judgments of Variability at the Individual and Group Levels. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology54: 788.
52.
KandiyotiD (2007) Between the Hammer and the Anvil: Post-Conflict Reconstruction, Islam and Women’s Rights. Third World Quarterly28 (3): 503–517.
53.
KennyMVergeT (2016) Opening Up the Black Box: Gender and Candidate Selection in a New Era. Government and Opposition51: 351–369.
54.
KinderDRKamCD (2009) US against Them: Ethnocentric Foundations of American Opinion. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
55.
KochJ (1997) Candidate Gender and Women’s Psychological Engagement in Politics. American Politics Quarterly25 (1): 118–133.
56.
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (2018) Election Polling Survey Lebanese Youth Segment. Who Are Lebanon’s First-time Voters?Beirut: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung.
57.
LawlessJL (2004) Women, War, and Winning Elections: Gender Stereotyping in the Post-september 11th Era. Political Research Quarterly57 (3): 479–490.
Lewis-BeckMLJacobyWGNorpothH, et al. (2008) The American Voter Revisited. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
60.
LijphartA (1977) Democracy in Plural Societies. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
61.
McConnaughyCMWhiteIKLealDL, et al. (2010) A Latino on the Ballot: Explaining Coethnic Voting among Latinos and the Response of White Americans. The Journal of Politics72 (4): 1199–1211.
62.
McCullochA (2020) Power-Sharing: A Gender Intervention. International Political Science Review41 (1): 44–57.
63.
McdermottML (1998) Race and Gender Cues in Low-Information Elections. Political Research Quarterly 51(4): 895–918.
64.
McDermottML (2009) Voting for Myself: Candidate and Voter Group Associations Over Time. Electoral Studies28 (4): 606–614.
65.
MackayFMurtaghC (2019) New Institutions, New Gender Rules? A Feminist Institutionalist Lens on Women and Power-Sharing. Feminists@law9 (1): 1–54.
66.
MakdisiU (2000) The Culture of Sectarianism: Community, History, and Violence in Nineteenth-century Ottoman Lebanon. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
67.
MartinN (2015) Do Ethnic Minority Candidates Mobilize Ethnic Minority Voters? Evidence from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. Parliamentary Affairs69 (3): 159–180.
68.
MoCH (2015) The Consequences of Explicit and Implicit Gender Attitudes and Candidate Quality in the Calculations of Voters. Political Behavior37: 357–395.
69.
MüggeLMErzeelS (2016) Double Jeopardy or Multiple Advantage? Intersectionality and Political Representation. Parliamentary Affairs69 (3): 499–511.
70.
MuttarakRHeathA (2010) Who Intermarries in Britain? Explaining Ethnic Diversity in Intermarriage Patterns. The British Journal of Sociology61 (2): 275–305.
71.
NivenD (1998) Party Elites and Women Candidates: The Shape of Bias. Women & Politics19 (2): 57–80.
72.
PeachC (1996) Does Britain Have Ghettos?Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers21 (1): 216–235.
73.
PlutzerEZippJF (1996) Identity Politics, Partisanship, and Voting for Women Candidates. Public Opinion Quarterly60 (1): 30–57.
74.
ReboucheRFearonK (2005). Overlapping identities: Power sharing and women’s rights. In:O’FlynnIRussellD (eds) Power Sharing: New Challenges for Divided Societies. London: Pluto Press, 155–171.
75.
RinehartST (2013) Gender Consciousness and Politics. London: Routledge.
76.
SanbonmatsuK (2002) Gender Stereotypes and Vote Choice. American Journal of Political Science46: 20–34.
77.
TajfelH (1981) Human Groups and Social Categories: Studies in Social Psychology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
78.
TaylorR (2009) Consociational Theory: Mcgarry and O’leary and the Northern Ireland Conflict. London: Routledge.
79.
TeeleDLKallaJRosenbluthF (2018) The Ties That Double Bind: Social Roles and Women’s Underrepresentation in Politics. American Political Science Review112 (3): 525–541.
80.
TsuiASEganTDO’Reilly IIICA (1992) Being Different: Relational Demography and Organizational Attachment. Administrative Science Quarterly37 (4): 549–579.
Van OostenSMüggeLvan der PasD (2024) Race/Ethnicity in Candidate Experiments: A Meta-analysis and the Case for Shared Identification. Acta Politica59 (1): 19–41.
84.
Van TrappenSDevroeRWautersB (2023) The Gendered Nature of Ethnic Minority Candidate Nomination: An Analysis of the Moderating Role of District Diversity, Party Affiliation and Ethnic Minorities’ Visibility. Local Government Studies. Epub ahead of print 23 July. DOI: 10.1080/03003930.2023.2239152.
85.
VeenstraG (2011) Race, Gender, Class, and Sexual Orientation: Intersecting Axes of Inequality and Self-Rated Health in Canada. International Journal for Equity in Health10: 3–24.
86.
WilliamsR (2010) Fitting Heterogeneous Choice Models with Oglm. The Stata Journal10 (4): 540–567.
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
