Candidate Qualifications and Out-Group Support: Evidence From Afghanistan

Abstract

Can qualifications help candidates from historically marginalized groups win over out-group voters? We help answer this question with an original conjoint experiment fielded on a face-to-face survey conducted in three Afghan provinces between 2016 and 2017. The conjoint asked over 2,400 Afghan respondents to rank and choose between profiles of hypothetical candidates with varying gender, ethnic and educational attributes. We explore whether candidate qualifications – as measured by educational attainment – can amplify respondents’ support for hypothetical candidates from two social groups traditionally underrepresented in Afghan politics: women and Hazaras, a predominately Shi’a ethnic minority group. We find that higher qualifications consistently increase male (non-Hazara) respondents’ ranking and likelihood of choosing profiles with female (Hazara) candidates. These gains, however, do not completely offset male (non-Hazara) respondents’ in-group biases. Qualifications help but are not enough to dismantle voter preferences for in-group candidates.

Keywords

gender sexuality and politics experimental research elections public opinion voting behavior ethnic politics

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Abramson

S. F.

Koçak

Magazinnik

(2022). What do we learn about voter preferences from conjoint experiments? American Journal of Political Science, 66(4), 1008–1020. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12714

Adida

Gottlieb

Kramon

McClendon

(2017). Overcoming or reinforcing coethnic preferences? An experiment on information and ethnic voting. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 12(4), 437–477. https://doi.org/10.1561/100.00017018

Adili

A. Y.

(2022). A community under attack: How successive governments failed west kabul and the hazaras who live there. Afghan Analysts Network. Retrieved from: https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war-and-peace/a-community-under-attack-how-successive-governments-failed-west-kabul-and-the-hazaras-who-live-there/

Afghan Bios . (2023). Afghan biographies. https://www.afghan-bios.info (Accessed: 9 October 2023)

Alesina

Devleeschauwer

Easterly

Kurlat

Wacziarg

(2003). Fractionalization. Journal of Economic Growth, 8(2), 155–194. https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1024471506938

Anzia

S. F.

Berry

C. R.

(2011). The jackie (and jill) robinson effect: Why do congresswomen outperform congressmen? American Journal of Political Science, 55(3), 478–493. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00512.x

Barnes

T. D.

Burchard

S. M.

(2013). “engendering” politics: The impact of descriptive representation on women’s political engagement in sub-saharan africa. Comparative Political Studies, 46(7), 767–790. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414012463884

Barnes

T. D.

Holman

M. R.

(2019). Taking diverse backgrounds into account in studies of political ambition and representation. Politics, Groups, and Identities, 7(4), 829–841. https://doi.org/10.1080/21565503.2018.1532916

Barnett

A Jamal

Monroe

S. L.

(2021). Earned income and women’s segmented empowerment: Experimental evidence from Jordan. American Journal of Political Science, 65(4), 954–970. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12561

10.

Barr

(2020). A crucial moment for women’s rights in Afghanistan (tech. rep.). Human Rights Watch. Retrieved from: https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/03/05/crucial-moment-womens-rights-afghanistan

11.

Bauer

N. M.

(2017). The effects of counterstereotypic gender strategies on candidate evaluations. Political Psychology, 38(2), 279–295. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12351

12.

Bauer

N. M.

(2020). Shifting standards: How voters evaluate the qualifications of female and male candidates. The Journal of Politics, 82(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1086/705817

13.

Benstead

Jamal

Lust

(2015). Is it gender, religiosity or both? A role congruity theory of candidate electability in transitional Tunisia. Perspectives on Politics, 13(1), 74–94. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1537592714003144

14.

Benstead

L. J.

Muriaas

Wang

(2023). Explaining backlash: Social hierarchy and men’s rejection of women’s rights reforms. Social Politics: International Studies in Gender, State & Society, 30(2), 496–524. https://doi.org/10.1093/sp/jxac037

15.

Bhatia

Jareer

Mcintosh

(2018). Community-driven development in Afghanistan. Asian Survey, 58(6), 1042–1065. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2018.58.6.1042

16.

Bhatia

Monroe

S. L.

(2024). Insecurity and support for female leadership in conflict states: Evidence from Afghanistan. British Journal of Political Science, 54(3), 771–792. https://doi.org/10.1017/s000712342300056x

17.

Blackman

A. D.

Jackson

(2021). Gender stereotypes, political leadership, and voting behavior in Tunisia. Political Behavior, 43(3), 1037–1066. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-019-09582-5

18.

Brulé

R. E.

(2020). Reform, representation, and resistance: The politics of property rights’ enforcement. The Journal of Politics, 82(4), 1390–1405. https://doi.org/10.1086/708645

19.

Bush

S. S.

(2011). International politics and the spread of quotas for women in legislatures. International Organization, 65(1), 103–137. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818310000287

20.

Callen

Long

J. D.

(2015). Institutional corruption and election fraud: Evidence from a field experiment in Afghanistan. The American Economic Review, 105(1), 354–381. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20120427

21.

Carlson

(2015). Ethnic voting and accountability in africa: A choice experiment in Uganda. World Politics, 67(2), 353–385. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0043887115000015

22.

Chandra

(2007). Why ethnic parties succeed: Patronage and ethnic head counts in India. Cambridge University Press.

23.

Clayton

Robinson

A. L.

Johnson

M. C.

Muriaas

(2020). (how) do voters discriminate against women candidates? Experimental and qualitative evidence from Malawi. Comparative Political Studies, 53(3–4), 601–630. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414019858960

24.

Clayton

Horiuchi

Kaufman

A. R.

King

Komisarchik

(2024). Correcting measurement error bias in conjoint survey experiments. Working Paper. Harvard University.

25.

Collingwood

(2020). Campaigning in a racially diversifying America: When and how cross-racial electoral mobilization works: Oxford University Press.

26.

Conroy-Krutz

(2013). Information and ethnic politics in africa. British Journal of Political Science, 43(2), 345–373. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007123412000300

27.

Corstange

(2016). The price of a vote in the middle east: Clientelism and communal politics in Lebanon and Yemen. Cambridge University Press.

28.

Crenshaw

(1991). Mapping the margins: Intersectionality, identity politics, and violence against women of color. Stanford Law Review, 43(6), 1241–1299. https://doi.org/10.2307/1229039

29.

Desai

Frey

(2021). Can descriptive representation help the right win votes from the poor? Evidence from Brazil. American Journal of Political Science.

30.

Dolan

(2008). Is there a “gender affinity effect” in american politics? Information, affect, and candidate sex in us house elections. Political Research Quarterly, 61(1), 79–89. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912907307518

31.

Dolan

(2014). When does gender matter? Women candidates and gender stereotypes in American elections. Oxford University Press.

32.

Ferree

K. E.

Gibson

C. C.

Long

J. D.

(2021). Mixed records, complexity, and ethnic voting in african elections. World Development, 141, Article 105418. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105418

33.

Fulton

S. A.

Dhima

(2021). The gendered politics of congressional elections. Political Behavior, 43(4), 1611–1637. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-020-09604-7

34.

Hainmueller

Hopkins

D. J.

Yamamoto

(2014). Causal inference in conjoint analysis: Understanding multidimensional choices via stated preference experiments. Political Analysis, 22(1), 1–30. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpt024

35.

Hankla

Banerjee

Thomas

Banerjee

(2022). Electing women in ethnically divided societies: Candidates, campaigns, and intersectionality in Bihar, India. Comparative Political Studies.

36.

Hayes

Lawless

J. L.

(2016). Women on the run: Gender, media, and political campaigns in a polarized era. Cambridge University Press.

37.

Holman

M. R.

Merolla

J. L.

Zechmeister

E. J.

(2016). Terrorist threat, male stereotypes, and candidate evaluations. Political Research Quarterly, 69(1), 134–147. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912915624018

38.

Horiuchi

Markovich

Yamamoto

(2022). Does conjoint analysis mitigate social desirability bias? Political Analysis, 30(4), 535–549. https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2021.30

39.

Horiuchi

Smith

D. M.

Yamamoto

(2020). Identifying voter preferences for politicians’ personal attributes: A conjoint experiment in Japan. Political Science Research and Methods, 8(1), 75–91. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2018.26

40.

HRW . (2022). Afghanistan: Isis group targets religious minorities (tech. rep.). Human Rights Watch. https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/09/06/afghanistan-isis-group-targets-religious-minorities

41.

Htun

(2004). Is gender like ethnicity? The political representation of identity groups. Perspectives on Politics, 2(03), 439–458. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1537592704040241

42.

Inter-Parliamentary Union . (2023). Women’s representation in the parliaments of least developed countries: From istanbul (2011) to doha (2022) (tech. rep.). United Nations. https://www.un.org/ldc5/sites/www.un.org.ldc5/files/women\text{\_}in\text{\_}ldc\text{\_}parliaments\text{\_}e.pdf

43.

Johnson

T. H.

Barnhart

R. J.

(2020). An examination of Afghanistan’s 2018 wolesi jirga elections: Chaos, confusion and fraud. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 7(1), 57–100. https://doi.org/10.1177/2347797020906635

44.

Jones

(2018). The many dangers of being an afghan woman in uniform. New York Times Magazine. Retrieved from: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/05/magazine/afghanistan-women-security-forces.html

45.

Kao

Benstead

(2019). The importance of intersectionality: Gender, islamism, and tribalism in elections. Program on Governance and Local Development Working Paper, (Vol. 23).

46.

Kao

Benstead

(2021). Female electability in the arab world: The advantages of intersectionality. Comparative Politics, 53(3), 427–464. https://doi.org/10.5129/001041521x15957812372871

47.

Krook

M. L.

O’Brien

Swip

(2010). Military invasion and women’s political representation. International Feminist Journal of Politics, 12(1), 66–79. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616740903429130

48.

Krueger

A. B.

Lindahl

(2001). Education for growth: Why and for whom? Journal of Economic Literature, 39(4), 1101–1136. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.39.4.1101

49.

Leeper

Hobolt

Tilley

(2020). Measuring subgroup preferences in conjoint experiments. Political Analysis, 28(2), 207–221. https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2019.30

50.

Manzano

Sanchez

G. R.

(2010). Take one for the team? Limits of shared ethnicity and candidate preferences. Political Research Quarterly, 63(3), 568–580. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912909333130

51.

C. H.

(2015). The consequences of explicit and implicit gender attitudes and candidate quality in the calculations of voters. Political Behavior, 37(2), 357–395. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-014-9274-4

52.

Monroe

S. L. A.

Bhatia

(2024). Replication data for candidate qualifications and out-group support: Evidence from Afghanistan. American Economic Association. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/KE6VPA

53.

Mosamim

Villeneuve

J. P.

(2023). Women in government: The limits and challenges of a representative bureaucracy for Afghanistan (2001–2021). Policy Studies, 44(6), 703–727. https://doi.org/10.1080/01442872.2022.2161499

54.

Mousavi

S. A.

(2018). The hazaras of Afghanistan. Routledge.

55.

Mügge

L. M.

Erzeel

(2016). Double jeopardy or multiple advantage? Intersectionality and political representation. Parliamentary Affairs, 69(3), 499–511. https://doi.org/10.1093/pa/gsv059

56.

Nijat

Murtazashvili

(2015). Women’s leadership roles in Afghanistan (tech. rep. No. 350). US Institute of Peace.

57.

O’Brien

Rickne

(2016). Gender quotas and women’s political leadership. American Political Science Review, 110(1), 112–126. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055415000611

58.

Ofosu

G. K.

Posner

D. N.

(2021). Pre-analysis plans: An early stocktaking. Perspectives on Politics, 21, 174–190. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1537592721000931

59.

Ono

Burden

B. C.

(2019). The contingent effects of candidate sex on voter choice. Political Behavior, 41(3), 583–607. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-018-9464-6

60.

Paying for the taliban’s crimes: Abuses against ethnic pashtuns in northern afghanistan (tech. rep.) . (2002). Human Rights Watch. https://www.refworld.org/reference/countryrep/hrw/2002/en/33710

61.

Piscopo

J. M.

Hinojosa

Thomas

Siavelis

P. M.

(2022). Follow the money: Gender, incumbency, and campaign funding in Chile. Comparative Political Studies, 55(2), 222–253. https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140211024300

62.

Profeta

Woodhouse

E. F.

(2022). Electoral rules, women’s representation and the qualification of politicians. Comparative Political Studies, Article 00104140211047414.

63.

Rashid

(2002). Taliban: Islam, oil and the new great game in central asia. IB Tauris London.

64.

Sabir Ibrahimi

(2020). Growing sectarianism can challenge lasting peace in Afghanistan. The Diplomat. Retrieved from: https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/growing-sectarianism-can-challenge-lasting-peace-in-afghanistan/

65.

Saikal

(2012). Afghanistan: The status of the shi’ite hazara minority. Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs, 32(1), 80–87. https://doi.org/10.1080/13602004.2012.665623

66.

Schuessler

Freitag

(2020). Power analysis for conjoint experiments.

67.

Schuler

(2023). Gender and clientelism: Do expectations of patronage penalize women candidates in legislative elections? Comparative Political Studies, Article 00104140231204248.

68.

Schwarz

Coppock

(2022). What have we learned about gender from candidate choice experiments? A meta-analysis of sixty-seven factorial survey experiments. The Journal of Politics, 84(2), 655–668. https://doi.org/10.1086/716290

69.

Semple

(2011). The rise of the hazaras and the challenge of pluralism in Afghanistan 1978–2011.

70.

Shah

N. A.

(2005). The constitution of Afghanistan and women’s rights. Feminist Legal Studies, 13(2), 239–258. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10691-005-7543-7

71.

Shair-Rosenfield

Hinojosa

(2014). Does female incumbency reduce gender bias in elections? Evidence from Chile. Political Research Quarterly, 67(4), 837–850. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912914550044

72.

Shockley

Gengler

J. J.

(2020). Social identity and coethnic voting in the middle east: Experimental evidence from Qatar. Electoral Studies, 67, Article 102213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102213

73.

Teele

D. L.

Kalla

Rosenbluth

(2018). The ties that double bind: Social roles and women’s underrepresentation in politics. American Political Science Review, 112(3), 525–541. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055418000217

74.

Toha

Hazra

(2022). Winning elections and changing the game? Challenges to broadening female political representation in new democracies. Unpublished Manuscript.

75.

UNDP . (2021). Gender development index 2021. (Accessed: 04-03-2023).

76.

UN Women . (2021). Women’s rights in Afghanistan: Where are we now? (Accessed: 04-03-2023).

77.

Weigand

(2022). Waiting for dignity: Legitimacy and authority in Afghanistan. Columbia University Press.

78.

Zulfacar

(2006). The pendulum of gender politics in Afghanistan. Central Asian Survey, 25(1-2), 27–59. https://doi.org/10.1080/02634930600903007

Supplementary Material

Please find the following supplemental material available below.

For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.

For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.

0.00 MB

0.55 MB