Rethinking Moving beyond Deterrence : A Partial Replication Study

Abstract

We assess Dugan and Chenoweth’s Rational Choice-based argument regarding moderating effects of indiscriminate conciliatory state actions on levels of terrorist attacks in Israel-Palestine, utilizing data drawn primarily from declassified security records on Israeli state actions during the First Intifada (1987–1992). This type of data source, we argue, contains a more accurate ratio of conciliatory to repressive actions than Dugan and Chenoweth’s media-based data, given state authorities’ attempts at concealing repressive actions while publicizing conciliatory actions during times of intense conflict. We discuss differences in results—including, most centrally, no support for the hypothesized effect of conciliatory state actions—highlighting the theoretical payoffs of examining the Political Process–related factor of varying levels of state control over the political environment.

Keywords

terrorism contentious politics deterrence state control Israel-Palestine

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Alimi

Maney

Burstein

(2019) Beyond the media’s radar: Introducing the Intifada Non-Media-Based Dataset. International Interactions 45(4): 736–756.

Brym

Araj

(2006) Suicide Bombing as Strategy and Interaction: The Case of the Second Intifada. Social Forces 84(4): 1969–1986.

Della Porta

(2011) Eventful Protest, Global Conflicts: Social Mechanisms in the Reproduction of Protest. In: Jasper

Goodwin

(eds) Contention in Context: Political Opportunities and the Emergence of Protest Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, pp.256–276.

Dugan

Chenoweth

(2012) Moving beyond Deterrence: The Effectiveness of Raising the Expected Utility of Abstaining from Terrorism in Israel. American Sociological Review 77 (4): 597–624.

Falloon

(1986) Excessive Secrecy, Lack of Guidelines. West Bank, Palestine: Al-Haq.

Goldstein

(1992) A Conflict-Cooperation Scale for WEIS Event Data. Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 (2): 369–385.

Gurr

(1970) Why Men Rebel. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Hannan

(1985) Problems of Aggregation. In: Blalock

(ed.) Causal Models in the Social Sciences. New Brunswick, NJ: Aldine Transaction, pp.403–440.

Hiltermann

(1991) Behind the Intifada. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

10.

Jerusalem Media and Communication Center (JMCC) (1991) The Stone and the Olive Branch: Four Years of the Intifada: From Jabalia to Madrid. Jerusalem, Israel: Al-Amal Press.

11.

Kalyvas

(2006) The Logic of Violence in Civil Wars. New York: Cambridge University Press.

12.

Kuttab

(1988) The Palestinian Uprising: self-sufficiency. Journal of Palestine Studies 17: 36–45.

13.

McAdam

(1999) Political Process and the Development of Black Insurgency, 1930–1970. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.

14.

Rucht

(1996) The Impact of National Contexts on Social Movement Structures: A Cross-Movement and Cross-National Comparison. In: McAdam

cCarthy

Zald

(eds) Comparative Perspectives on Social Movements: Political Opportunities, Mobilizing Structures, and Cultural Framings. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 185–204.

15.

Schiff

Ya’ari

(1990) The Intifada. Tel Aviv, Israel: Shoken.

16.

Shellman

(2004) Time Series Intervals and Statistical Inference: The Effects of Temporal Aggregation on Even Data Analysis. Political Analysis 12 (1): 97–104.

17.

Tarrow

(2011) Power in Movement. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

18.

Wolfsfeld

(1997) Media and Political Conflict. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

19.

Wood

(2003) Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

20.

Zertal

Eldar

(2004) Lords of the Land: The Settlers and the State of Israel, 1967–2004. Or Yehuda, Israel: Kinneret: Zmora-Bitan; Dvir Publishing House.

Supplementary Material

Please find the following supplemental material available below.

For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.

For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.

0.00 MB

0.01 MB